Trip.com Stock Nears Year High At 77.14 With Bullish Signals But Overbought Risks

Candlestick Theory
Trip.com (TCOM) exhibits notable candlestick patterns within the provided dataset. A decisive bullish engulfing pattern emerged on September 11th, 2025, where the session closed near its high ($74.83) after opening near the prior day’s low, signaling strong buying pressure. The most recent two-day rally (September 15th–16th) closed above the September 11th peak ($74.85), establishing $74.80–$75.00 as immediate support. Resistance is evident at $77.14 (September 16th high), with a break above potentially targeting the year-to-date high near $77.18. A bearish divergence is noted as the September 16th close ($76.58) approached the 2025 peak with declining volume, warranting caution.
Moving Average Theory
Trip.com trades above all key moving averages, confirming a bullish bias. The 50-day MA (approximately $67.50, derived from recent closes) provides dynamic support, while the 100-day MA (~$64.30) and 200-day MA (~$60.80) maintain upward slopes, reflecting sustained long-term momentum. The ascending alignment of shorter MAs above longer ones (50 > 100 > 200) reinforces a bullish trend structure. However, the price’s current distance above the 50-day MA (~13% premium) suggests potential short-term consolidation or pullback risk.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover in early September, with the histogram expanding positively—indicating accelerating upward momentum. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator (particularly the %K and %D lines) resides near overbought territory (>80), reflecting strong near-term momentum. While this alignment supports continuation, the KDJ’s overextension increases susceptibility to a short-term pullback if bullish momentum wanes, though no bearish divergence is yet evident.
Bollinger Bands
Price action in mid-September broke above the upper Bollinger Band (20-day, 2 Std Dev) during the $74.83–$77.14 ascent, signaling an overextended short-term rally. Recent consolidation near $76–$77 aligns with the upper band boundary, suggesting resistance. Bandwidth expanded sharply after the August 28th surge, reflecting heightened volatility. A contraction in bandwidth concurrent with sideways price action may precede the next directional move.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 130% on August 28th (14.92% rally), validating the breakout. However, recent gains (September 15th–16th) occurred on declining volume relative to the early-September advance, signaling weakening upside conviction. The September 16th rally volume remained below the 20-day average, suggesting sustainability concerns near the $77 resistance. Downswings (e.g., September 12th) saw proportionally lower volume, indicating limited selling aggression.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI currently reads ~67, hovering near overbought territory (70+) but not yet signaling exhaustion. The indicator peaked at 75 during the August 28th surge and has since oscillated within a 55–70 range, supporting a structurally bullish but tactically cautious stance. Failure to breach the 70 threshold during the recent rally may reflect latent bearish divergence, though confirmation requires RSI retreat amid rising prices.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the swing low of September 23rd, 2024 ($46.65) and the recent high of September 16th, 2025 ($77.14): The 38.2% retracement level sits at $65.30, which aligned with support in May–June 2025. The 50% level ($61.90) marked the July 2025 low. Current price action tests the 0% extension (high). Key confluent support rests at the 23.6% retracement ($71.35), reinforced by the August swing high and the 50-day MA. A sustained break above $77.14 could open upside toward the 123.6% extension (~$83.50).
Confluence & Divergence Summary
Confluence supports a bullish medium-term trend, evidenced by moving average alignment, MACD crossover, and RSI holding above 55. Key resistance at $77.14 gains technical significance, combining the current YTD high, Bollinger Band resistance, and Fibonacci projection. Notable divergence appears between recent price highs and volume, suggesting weakening momentum near resistance. Traders should monitor the $74.80 support (recent breakout level) and $77.14 resistance for directional cues, with overextended oscillators (KDJ, RSI) warranting tactical caution despite the bullish structure.