Trip.com Jumps 4.63% as Technicals Signal Bullish Momentum Breakout

Trip.com (TCOM) surged 4.63% in the latest session, closing at $61.46 after trading between $60.15 and $62.22 on elevated volume of 3.58 million shares. This analysis integrates multiple technical perspectives on TCOM’s recent price action.
Candlestick Theory
TCOM’s current candle forms a robust bullish marubozu with minimal wicks, signaling strong buying conviction after three indecisive sessions near the $58–$59 support zone. This follows a hammer pattern on June 23 at $55.83, reinforcing $56 as a major swing low. Immediate resistance is evident near $62.22 (July 7 high), which aligns with the June 11 peak of $62.34. A sustained break above $62.50 would confirm bullish momentum, while failure risks retesting the $58–$59 consolidation floor.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) has crossed bullishly above the 100-day MA, reflecting strengthening intermediate momentum. Current price trades above all three key MAs (50-day at ~$60.20, 100-day at ~$59.80, 200-day at ~$57.50), confirming a long-term uptrend. The 200-day MA’s upward slope since October 2024 provides structural support. Consecutive weekly closes above the 50-day MA suggest trend continuity, though the $62–$63 area (March 2025 resistance) poses a challenge.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover in positive territory, with the histogram expanding for the third consecutive week – indicating accelerating upward momentum. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator (14-period) presents a concerning divergence: While price reached new monthly highs, the K-line (78) and D-line (75) are retreating from overbought zones after peaking at 89/86 in late June. This suggests short-term exhaustion. MACD’s strength may override KDJ’s warning, but a pullback to reset momentum appears probable.
Bollinger Bands
Price rebounded from the middle Bollinger Band ($59.60) after a volatility contraction in late June, pushing toward the upper band ($63.20). Band width remains narrow relative to April’s high-volatility phase, implying latent breakout potential. The July 7 close near the upper band hints at short-term overextension, increasing odds of consolidation. A close above $62.50 would trigger a band expansion, supporting further upside.
Volume-Price Relationship
The rally was validated by volume surging 80% above the 20-day average, confirming institutional participation. Notably, the June 24 advance on 3.95 million shares marked a volume climax that established $58 as support. Conversely, the July 3 down day saw volume dip 50% below average, underscoring weak selling pressure. Accumulation/distribution trends remain positive, with On-Balance Volume (OBV) nearing its April peak.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (current: 68) retreated from overbought territory (71 on June 24) but maintains an upward trajectory from its mid-June low of 48. This positions TCOM in bullish momentum territory without extreme overbought risks. Divergence with the July 7 price high is absent, supporting the uptrend’s health. A dip below 55 would signal waning momentum, while holding above 60 maintains bullish bias.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels between the April low ($51.08) and May high ($67.44), key retracement supports cluster at $61.10 (23.6%), $59.30 (38.2%), and $57.20 (50%). The recent bounce from $58 effectively tested the 38.2% level, reinforcing it as a critical floor. The 61.8% extension of the June rally projects resistance at $63.80, closely aligning with the March swing high of $64.11. Confluence between Fibonacci and horizontal resistance at $62.50–$63 creates a decisive breakout zone.
Concluding Synthesis
Multiple indicators converge on a cautiously bullish outlook for TCOM. Moving average alignment, MACD momentum, and volume-supported breaks suggest underlying strength, with major support at $58–$59. The $62–$63 resistance zone – reinforced by Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci projections, and March 2025 price history – remains the immediate hurdle. Divergence in the KDJ oscillator and RSI’s proximity to overbought levels indicate potential consolidation before further upside. Probabilistically, a measured pullback to the $60–$60.50 area (confluence of 50-day MA and 23.6% Fib) could offer entry opportunities targeting $63.80 resistance, provided $58 support holds.