Treehouse/Tether USDt Market Overview (2025-09-11)

• Price dropped from 0.328 to 0.3184 over 24 hours amid strong bearish momentum.
• RSI near oversold territory suggests potential reversal, though volume remains muted.
• Volatility expanded following a sharp drop in the early morning before stabilizing midday.
• Multiple bearish engulfing patterns formed on key 15-minute intervals.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, indicating a possible breakout period ahead.

On 2025-09-11 at 12:00 ET, Treehouse/Tether USDt (TREEUSDT) closed at 0.3184, down from an open of 0.328, with a 24-hour high of 0.339 and low of 0.311. Total volume was 9.46 million, and notional turnover was $2.94 million.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a series of bearish engulfing patterns from 00:00–04:00 ET, suggesting continued selling pressure. A notable 15-minute doji appeared at 05:00 ET, signaling indecision and potential exhaustion. Key support levels emerged near 0.3182–0.3160 and 0.3110–0.3100, while resistance sat at 0.3207–0.3223 and 0.3240–0.3260.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming a short-term bearish bias. The 50-period moving average is near 0.3240, which aligns with recent support-turned-resistance levels.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below zero with a bearish histogram contraction in the early hours, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI dropped to 28 by 12:00 ET, nearing oversold territory, suggesting a possible short-term bounce. However, the divergence between price and RSI remains weak, indicating a cautious outlook.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sharp drop from 0.328 to 0.3184, with price reaching the lower band. A contraction occurred in the final hour of the 24-hour period, indicating potential for a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning hours as price dropped below 0.3240, confirming the bearish move. However, volume dropped off sharply during the consolidation phase, indicating weakening momentum. Turnover aligned with price action, with a sharp drop in notional turnover after 09:00 ET.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels show 0.3206 as the 38.2% retracement of the 0.339–0.311 move, where price stalled in the morning before continuing lower. The 61.8% level at 0.3152 became a key short-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described aims to exploit bearish continuation patterns such as the bearish engulfing and doji, combined with RSI near oversold levels. A potential approach could be entering short positions on confirmation of a bearish engulfing candle at key support levels, with a stop-loss above the 20-period moving average and a target aligned with the next Fibonacci level. If volume confirms the pattern, the strategy could be refined to include tighter stop-loss levels and shorter timeframes for increased responsiveness to volatility.