Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• Treehouse/Tether traded lower overnight amid increased bearish momentum.
• Key support tested near 0.14, with volume surging during the breakdown.
• MACD and RSI confirm bearish bias, with price near 61.8% Fibonacci on the daily.

Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) opened at 0.1485 on 2025-11-13 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.1488, a low of 0.1346, and closed at 0.1381 on 2025-11-14 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 19,135,367.7, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $2,650,947.27. The price trend shows a bearish breakdown, especially after the 4:45 AM ET candle (0.1401) broke a prior consolidation range.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart reveals a strong bearish shift as the 0.1400–0.1430 range was decisively broken after a consolidation period. A key support at 0.14 was tested and held, while resistance at 0.1455–0.1460 appears to have stalled buying pressure. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.1400 on 2025-11-14 04:45 ET, followed by a long lower shadow at 0.1380–0.1390 suggesting bearish control. A bearish trendline from the 0.1470–0.1460 peak is now in play, with a target near 0.1330 if the breakdown holds.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period EMA and 50-period EMA crossed to the downside, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day EMA crossover remains bearish, with price currently below all three, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend is likely unless a strong reversal occurs. The 200-day EMA is near 0.1420, indicating that a break below this level could trigger deeper bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and remains below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum with the histogram expanding as the downtrend accelerates. RSI has dropped to the 35–38 range, nearing oversold territory, but this has not triggered a reversal thus far. A bearish divergence was noted between RSI and price near 0.1455, where RSI failed to make a new high despite the price attempt.

Bollinger Bands

Price has broken below the lower Bollinger Band after a period of consolidation within the bands, indicating heightened volatility and a continuation of the bearish bias. The recent breakdown from the 0.1400–0.1430 range suggests traders are taking profits in the short term. A retest of the 0.1380–0.1400 range is expected as a potential area of support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the breakdown at 4:45 AM ET with a volume of 1,913,536.7 and a high low of 0.1346. This is the largest single candle in the 24-hour set and confirms the bearish shift. Turnover in this candle reached $265,094.73, indicating strong conviction in the move lower. Divergences between volume and price are limited, but the high volume during the breakdown supports the move and suggests continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.1395 is currently acting as a key support level. On the 15-minute chart, the 50% retracement at 0.1416 appears to have stalled the price, but failed to trigger a reversal. A test of the 38.2% level at 0.1435 could signal a potential short-term bounce if bulls reassert control.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate potential trading signals, a backtesting strategy is being considered that focuses on the MACD indicator. The hypothesis is centered around a reversal-based approach: buying when the MACD line crosses above the signal line (a bullish "golden cross") and selling when it crosses below (a bearish "death cross"). Given the current bearish momentum in TREEUSDT, such a strategy could be used to test the efficacy of countertrend entries or to manage risk in a bearish environment. This aligns with the recent MACD divergence and the current bearish histogram expansion, suggesting a potential testing of this strategy with a focus on dynamic entries.