Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) Market Overview

• Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) declined ~3.1% over the past 24 hours, closing near intraday support.
• Strong bearish momentum confirmed by RSI divergence and bearish MACD crossover.
• Volatility expanded as price traded 1.9% range, with highest turnover at 00:15 ET.
• Price rejected key resistance near $0.193, now testing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
• On-balance volume confirmed the downward trend, with no significant accumulation signs.

Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) opened at $0.1890 on 2025-10-26 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1885 on 2025-10-27 at the same time. The 24-hour range reached $0.1964 (high) and $0.1766 (low), representing a 1.9% volatility band. Total volume amounted to ~9.9 million contracts, with turnover reaching $1.93 million.

Price formed a bearish structure over the last 24 hours, with several bearish candlestick formations, including engulfing patterns and long lower shadows. A key resistance level formed at $0.193, which failed to hold amid a broad sell-off late on 10/26. A 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart both turned bearish, with the 20 EMA below the 50 EMA, signaling a potential continuation of the downward trend. Daily EMA lines also showed bearish alignment, with the 50-period EMA below the 100 and 200-period lines.

Momentum indicators reinforced the bearish bias. RSI-14 fell into oversold territory at 28.5, but failed to show a bounce, indicating potential continuation of the downtrend. MACD turned negative with a bearish crossover and a decreasing histogram, suggesting fading bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands displayed a wide range, with price lingering near the lower band for several hours, signaling oversold conditions. Price found temporary support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent $0.1766–$0.1964 swing, now at $0.1860.

Volume spiked sharply on the 15-minute chart at 00:15 ET, coinciding with a sharp move from $0.1924 to $0.1943, but failed to confirm a reversal. A bearish divergence emerged between price and volume, as the latter declined during the recent pullback from $0.1925 to $0.1885. Total notional turnover was highest at $0.1934 (00:15 ET), but dropped significantly after 01:30 ET.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the bearish setup on the 15-minute chart and recent divergence in volume and momentum, a backtest could be designed to simulate short-term bearish signals. A potential approach could involve entering a short position when RSI-14 (15-min) crosses above 70 (overbought), followed by a sell stop placed 1% below the most recent swing low over the past 10 trading periods. This swing low could be updated dynamically as price action develops. For this strategy, using the most recent swing low (currently at $0.1813) would set a 1% sell trigger at $0.1795. Additional risk control could include a 3-day time-based exit to prevent drawdowns in case of a reversal. Given the recent price behavior and RSI divergence, this rule-based strategy might capture bearish momentum effectively for TREEUSDT.