Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-03

• TREEUSDT traded in a 24-hour range of $0.258–$0.272, with a closing rise from $0.2615 to $0.2654.
• A bullish breakout above the 0.270–0.272 resistance failed, followed by a retest and consolidation below.
• Volatility expanded after 12:00 ET, with a sharp bearish move in the 10–11 AM ET window.
• RSI overbought conditions occurred twice, but failed to confirm a sustained move.
• On-balance volume and price action showed divergence during key swings, signaling caution.

The Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) pair opened at $0.2615 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2654 the following day. The 24-hour session saw a high of $0.272 and a low of $0.258. Total volume amounted to 5,920,972.7 TREE, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,557,107. The market exhibited mixed momentum with key resistance and support levels in focus.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart formed a bullish wedge from $0.261 to $0.270, with the wedge’s upper edge acting as a resistance. A failed breakout above $0.2715 was followed by a retest and consolidation. A bearish inside bar pattern appeared around 03:00–05:00 ET, signaling a potential reversal. Later, a bullish engulfing pattern at 09:00–09:15 ET suggested renewed buying interest, though it failed to break above prior highs. Key support levels were identified at $0.2645 and $0.2615, while resistance remained at $0.2715 and $0.272.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed at $0.266–$0.267, with price hovering above both by the end of the session. The 50-period line crossed above the 100-period line at 05:00 ET, signaling a potential short-term bullish bias. The 200-period daily SMA remained above $0.268, reinforcing that the current move is still within a larger consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed bullish divergence with a histogram expansion from $0.2675–$0.2705, followed by a bearish crossover at $0.267–$0.268. RSI hit overbought conditions at $0.271 and $0.270, peaking at 68 and 65, respectively, but failed to confirm a breakout with sustained volume. The indicator later entered oversold territory at $0.260, peaking at RSI 32 before a moderate rebound. This suggests mixed momentum with potential for a retest of key support and resistance levels.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 10:00–11:00 ET window, as price dropped from $0.2649 to $0.2592, breaching the lower band. A contraction in the bands occurred between 02:00–03:00 ET, indicating a buildup of potential energy. By the end of the session, price sat near the upper band at $0.265–$0.266, suggesting a possible short-term top formation. Traders may watch for a potential bounce off the midline or a breakdown below the $0.2645 support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish 10:00–10:15 ET move, reaching 5,920,972.7 TREE in that 15-minute interval, coinciding with a sharp drop from $0.2649 to $0.2592. This indicated aggressive selling pressure. Conversely, volume during the bullish 09:00–09:15 ET move was relatively low, suggesting a lack of conviction in the upward movement. Notional turnover also spiked during the 10:00–10:15 ET window, confirming the bearish divergence. These patterns highlight potential exhaustion and may foreshadow a near-term retest of prior levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements were applied to the 10:00–10:15 ET bear move ($0.2649 to $0.2592). The 38.2% level at $0.2613 and the 61.8% level at $0.2639 acted as key psychological support levels. Price found strong support at the 61.8% level before bouncing back above $0.265. On the daily chart, the 50% Fibonacci level at $0.266 remained untested but could be the next target in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when price breaks above the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart and exits when the RSI enters overbought territory (RSI > 65). A stop-loss is placed at the 20-period low for the last 5 candles. This strategy could have captured the 09:00–09:15 ET move but would have exited early due to RSI overbought conditions. Given the current structure and lack of strong follow-through, this setup appears high-risk unless accompanied by a breakout above $0.2715 with increased volume.