U.S. Treasury Yields: Near-Term Pressures and Regulatory Uncertainties Before Thanksgiving

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields slipped to 4.04% on November 24, 2025, . This level reflects ongoing investor caution toward long-term assets as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts intensified following a dovish policy shift by NY Fed leadership. .

The steep flattening shows in the 10-2 year spread, . This gap points to conflicting market views on future growth and inflation trajectories. , investors are clearly favoring short-term safety, .

While Treasuries rallied, . Emerging markets also faced pressure, highlighting a clear flight-to-quality preference. Municipal bond demand held up against heavy new issuance, suggesting relative safety in that segment during volatility. .

The immediate focus remains on the Fed's next move, . . .

Fed Policy Catalysts and Treasury Supply Dynamics

Investors eyeing November's Treasury market should track three primary forces shaping yield movements. First, . at its December meeting, market expectations have shifted notably from earlier this year. , . Still, , .

Second, . , . , , . While this issuance aligns with routine quarterly financing needs, , .

Third, . Banks must comply with . However, the lack of explicit, . , .

The confluence of potential Fed easing, significant Treasury supply, . , . , as unexpected changes could disrupt balance sheet planning and trigger defensive selling.

Regulatory Uncertainties and Capital Realignment Pressures

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. While establishes liquidity ratios(https://www.bis.org/bcbs/basel3.htm), . , . .

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, implementation timing remains unclear. Unresolved duration limits prevent proper strategic positioning, . The resulting market friction may persist until regulators finalize these parameters, .

Building on previous market observations, . ; , .

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