U.S. Treasury yields stabilize after payrolls benchmark data revision; 10-year Treasury note yield remains at 4.047%

U.S. Treasury yields stabilize after payrolls benchmark data revision; 10-year Treasury note yield remains at 4.047%

U.S. Treasury yields remained relatively stable on Tuesday, September 9, 2025, as investors awaited the release of two key inflation reports that could influence policy decisions at the Federal Reserve. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield stood at 4.047%, with yields across the curve showing little change from the previous session.

The stability in Treasury yields comes after a period of volatility, largely driven by the release of weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data on Friday. This data prompted a slide in Treasury yields, as it reinforced market expectations of an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month. The notable labor market slowdown, according to Pimco’s Tiffany Wilding, should help mitigate some of the Fed’s concerns about second-round effects, such as higher inflation expectations leading to more persistent inflation .

On Tuesday, the focus shifted to the upcoming US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) preliminary benchmark revisions to Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), due at 14:00 GMT. Traders are widely expecting these revisions to show that job growth over the past year was overstated, confirming that the US labor market has been cooling more sharply than initially reported. According to most estimates, the upcoming NFP revisions could subtract between 475,000 and 1 million jobs from previously published payroll figures for the 12 months through March 2025 .

The potential downgrade in payroll data is seen as the final confirmation of a slowdown in the labor market, which could add weight to expectations that the Fed will cut rates at its September 16-17 meeting. While a 25 basis point move is now widely anticipated, some market participants are also positioning for a more aggressive 50 bps cut, should the data signal a deeper-than-feared labor market correction .

Looking ahead, traders will keep a close eye on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) due Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday for fresh clues on inflation dynamics. Stronger-than-expected data could temper market expectations for aggressive Fed easing, while a softer print would likely reinforce the case for a larger rate cut .

References:
https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-1-1108534-20250909
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-treasury-yields-stabilize-after-payrolls-prompted-slide-ec5f9808