La curva de rendimientos del tesoro de EE. UU. a finales de 2025: un barómetro para las políticas de la Fed y la resiliencia económica

The U.S. Treasury yield curve has long served as both a mirror and a compass for the economy, reflecting market sentiment while offering glimpses into the future. As we approach late 2025, the curve's dynamics are once again at the center of debates about Federal Reserve policy and the broader economic outlook. After years of inversion-a condition that historically has signaled recessionary risks-the curve has begun to normalize, raising critical questions about the Fed's next moves and the durability of the current economic expansion.

The Yield Curve's Return to Normalcy

As of October 2025, the U.S. yield curve has steepened to a positive spread of 53 basis points, with the 2-year Treasury yielding 3.48% and the 10-year at 4.01%. This marks a dramatic shift from the deeply inverted conditions that persisted from July 2022 to November 2023, a period that represented the longest inversion in modern history. The normalization of the curve is driven by a combination of factors: a Fed poised to cut interest rates in response to a weakening labor market, and persistent fiscal deficits that keep long-term yields anchored.

This steepening, however, does not automatically signal an absence of risks. The yield curve's predictive power remains a subject of academic and policy debate. While it has historically predicted 7 of the last 8 recessions with 87.5% accuracy, the 2019 inversion-a false positive demonstrates that context matters. That inversion, shallow and brief, was influenced by global demand for U.S. Treasuries and Fed policy normalization, not an impending recession. Duration of inversion is key: inversions lasting three months or longer correlate with a 73% recession probability, compared to 45% for shorter ones.

Fed Policy: Rate Cuts and Market Signals

The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory is closely tied to the yield curve's behavior. With inflation still above its 2% target and labor market weakness evident, the Fed is expected to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 3.0%–3.5% over the next year. This dovish pivot would align with the curve's steepening, as lower short-term rates typically reduce the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields.

Yet, the Fed faces a delicate balancing act. While rate cuts could stimulate growth, they also risk reigniting inflationary pressures if fiscal deficits and corporate bond issuance continue to drive long-term yields higher according to analysis. The yield curve's steepness-driven by expectations of slower short-term rate growth versus sustained long-term demand-suggests that the Fed may proceed cautiously, prioritizing stability over aggressive action.

Economic Outlook: Fragile Growth and Recession Risks

Despite the yield curve's normalization, the economic outlook remains mixed. The Cleveland Fed estimates a 21.4% probability of recession within the next year, a figure that, while elevated, falls short of the panic-inducing levels seen during prior inversions. Meanwhile, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index declined by 0.3% in September 2025, underscoring fragile and uneven growth amid ongoing tariff adjustments and shifting consumer spending patterns.

Academic analyses further complicate the narrative. While the yield curve remains a critical tool for forecasting GDP growth, its predictive power has been questioned in the 21st century, particularly given instances of prolonged inversion without subsequent recessions. The curve's slope and spread still offer valuable insights, but they must be interpreted alongside other indicators, such as employment data and consumer confidence.

Investment Implications: Navigating Uncertainty

For investors, the current yield curve environment presents both opportunities and challenges. The steepening curve favors intermediate-term fixed-income strategies, as higher long-term yields offer better returns without the volatility of shorter-term instruments. High-quality credit issuers also stand to benefit, as the curve's steepness reflects strong demand for safe assets and corporate bonds.

However, the risk of a false positive-another 2019-style inversion-cannot be ignored. Investors should remain agile, hedging against potential rate volatility while maintaining exposure to sectors insulated from a slowdown, such as healthcare and utilities.

Conclusion: A Tool, Not a Crystal Ball

The U.S. Treasury yield curve remains one of the most closely watched indicators in financial markets. Its normalization in late 2025 suggests a Fed poised to ease policy and averts immediate recessionary signals. Yet, as history shows, the curve is a tool, not a crystal ball. Its insights must be contextualized within broader economic realities, from global capital flows to fiscal policy. For now, the data points to a cautiously optimistic outlook-but one that demands vigilance.