Travere Therapeutics Plunges 33% on FDA Regulatory Hurdle – What’s Next for FSGS Pipeline?

Summary
• TVTX crashes 33.39% to $22.71, erasing $1.14B in market cap
• FDA requests additional data for FSGS indication, delaying PDUFA decision
• Intraday range of $22.59–$26.00 highlights volatile trading
• Options chain shows heightened volatility with 117% IV on key puts

Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) faces a seismic shift as shares collapse amid regulatory uncertainty. The FDA’s demand for more data on Filspari’s FSGS efficacy has triggered a liquidity crisis, with the stock trading below $23 for the first time in months. This move underscores the fragility of biotech valuations tied to single-asset pipelines.

FDA’s FSGS Data Request Sparks Liquidity Crisis
The 33.4% intraday plunge stems directly from the FDA’s request for additional clinical data on Filspari’s FSGS efficacy. This delay in the January 13 PDUFA decision has shattered investor confidence in the drug’s commercial potential. With FSGS representing a $300M+ peak sales opportunity, the regulatory hurdle has shifted focus back to the IgA Nephropathy indication, which now carries a significantly reduced growth profile. The sell-off reflects a re-pricing of TVTX’s entire therapeutic pipeline, as the market discounts future cash flows tied to FSGS approval.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility with TVTX20260220P17.5 and TVTX20260220P22.5
• RSI: 48.91 (neutral) • MACD: 0.228 (bearish divergence) • 200D MA: $23.12 (below current price) • Bollinger Bands: $32.37–$40.52 (wide range) • Gamma: 0.031–0.050 (high sensitivity) • IV Ratio: 104.33%–117.06% (elevated)

Key levels to monitor: $18.50 pivot, $22.59 intraday low, and $26.00 resistance. Short-term volatility suggests a range-bound setup with potential for a bounce above $23.12 (200D MA). The options chain reveals two high-conviction plays:

• TVTX20260220P17.5
- Strike: $17.50 • Expiry: 2026-02-20 • IV: 109.48% • Delta: -0.179 • Theta: -0.0219 • Gamma: 0.0321 • Turnover: 32,567
- IV (high volatility premium) • Delta (moderate directional bias) • Gamma (price sensitivity) • Turnover (liquidity)
- This put offers 25.24% leverage with a 29.13% price drop. If TVTX breaks below $18.50, the $17.50 strike could see 57% payoff in a 5% downside scenario.

• TVTX20260220P22.5
- Strike: $22.50 • Expiry: 2026-02-20 • IV: 104.33% • Delta: -0.416 • Theta: -0.0255 • Gamma: 0.0504 • Turnover: 3,531
- IV (mid-range volatility) • Delta (strong directional bias) • Gamma (high sensitivity) • Turnover (adequate liquidity)
- The $22.50 put provides 7.83% leverage with a 33.64% price drop. In a 5% downside scenario, payoff reaches 43% if TVTX closes below $22.50.

Aggressive bears should consider TVTX20260220P22.5 into a breakdown below $22.59.

Backtest Travere Therapeutics Stock Performance
The iShares Core S&P U.S. Broad Market ETF (TVTX) has demonstrated resilience following a significant intraday plunge of -33% in 2022. Over the past four years, TVTX has experienced a total of 467 days with a return, showing a 3-day win rate of 48.61%, a 10-day win rate of 51.82%, and a 30-day win rate of 52.25%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 6.18%, indicating that while there is volatility, TVTX has the potential for positive returns in the short term.

TVTX at Crossroads: Watch for $18.50 Support or Regulatory Catalyst
The 33.4% collapse has created a critical inflection point for TVTX. While the FDA’s data request is a structural blow to the FSGS narrative, the stock’s technical setup suggests a potential rebound above $23.12 (200D MA). Investors should monitor the $18.50 pivot level and the January 13 PDUFA decision. Meanwhile, sector leader Amgen (AMGN) is down 0.98%, signaling broader biotech caution. A sustained break below $18.50 would validate the bear case, but a rebound above $26.00 could reignite hope in the IgA Nephropathy indication. Position for a $18.50 test or wait for the FDA’s final decision.