TransUnion Faces Increased Competition Amid FICO and Equifax Price Cuts and Direct Distribution Shift

FICO has enabled tri-merge resellers to license its credit reports directly, bypassing Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion. Equifax countered by reducing VantageScore 4.0 prices to $4.95 per report through 2027 and offering free reports to mortgage lenders. This shift increases competition and could pressure TransUnion's pricing power, potentially impacting its investment outlook.

In October 2025, Fair Isaac (FICO) introduced the FICO® Mortgage Direct License Program, enabling mortgage industry participants to access FICO scores directly from tri-merge resellers instead of through the three major credit bureaus. This shift represents a foundational change in credit scoring distribution, intensifying competition among analytics providers and potentially reshaping the cost dynamics for mortgage lenders and borrowers Fair Isaac (FICO) Is Up 12.1% After Launching Direct Mortgage Score Access Program – What's Changed^[1].

Equifax countered this move by reducing VantageScore 4.0 prices to $4.95 per report through 2027 and offering free reports to mortgage lenders. This strategic response aims to challenge FICO's dominance and attract lenders who may be seeking more cost-effective alternatives Fair Isaac (FICO) Is Up 12.1% After Launching Direct Mortgage Score Access Program – What's Changed^[1].

The new FICO program could accelerate competition from alternative scoring models like VantageScore, which could pressure FICO's market share and pricing power. However, FICO's forecasts project $2.9 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in earnings by 2028, requiring 14.3% yearly revenue growth and a $467 million earnings increase from the current earnings of $632.6 million Fair Isaac (FICO) Is Up 12.1% After Launching Direct Mortgage Score Access Program – What's Changed^[1].

The competitive dynamics in credit scoring may start to impact lenders' choices and margins. As lenders weigh evolving score alternatives, the range of opinions about FICO's future market position spans from $1,005 to $2,628 per share, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding FICO's investment outlook Fair Isaac (FICO) Is Up 12.1% After Launching Direct Mortgage Score Access Program – What's Changed^[1].

TransUnion's pricing power could be impacted by these developments, as lenders may choose more cost-effective options. However, FICO's direct license program and the competitive response from Equifax could lead to a more competitive and transparent credit scoring landscape, potentially benefiting consumers and lenders alike.