Tranchess/USDC Market Overview (2025-10-12)

• Tranchess/USDC experienced a sharp 24-hour rally, ending near its 24-hour high of $0.04429 driven by strong buying pressure in the last 6 hours.
• Volatility surged as the pair broke above key resistance levels, with RSI nearing overbought territory and MACD signaling bullish momentum.
• Volume spiked significantly in the 08:00–12:00 ET timeframe, confirming the upward move and aligning with a breakout above Bollinger Bands.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.04367 and 0.04429 acted as strong magnets for price action in the final hours.
• A potential consolidation phase may follow, with critical support at $0.0426 and resistance at $0.04429 for the next 24 hours.

On 2025-10-12, Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) opened at $0.0403 and closed at $0.04429 after hitting a high of $0.0451 and a low of $0.03847. The 24-hour period saw strong bullish momentum with total volume of 95433.0 and a turnover of $4,306.35 (calculated as price × volume at final close). The price action reflected a clear breakout pattern, particularly in the 12:00–16:00 ET timeframe.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a strong bullish flag pattern during the 08:00–12:00 ET window, confirming a breakout above key resistance at $0.0426 after a consolidation phase. The formation was reinforced by a bullish engulfing candle at $0.04101 and a long white candle closing near the high at $0.04293. A key support level appears to be forming at $0.04197, where the price found buying interest during the 13:45–14:00 ET session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, with the 20SMA crossing above the 50SMA, signaling a bullish crossover. This suggests continued momentum in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 100DMA were closely aligned, while the 200DMA acted as a psychological support during the early hours of the session.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the zero line during the 08:00–08:15 ET hour, confirming the bullish turn. The histogram showed increasing momentum in the 08:00–12:00 ET window. RSI moved from oversold territory at $0.03847 to overbought conditions near $0.04429, suggesting potential for a correction or consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the 08:00–12:00 ET session, with price breaking above the upper Bollinger Band. This breakout was supported by a strong volume spike and aligned with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at $0.04429. The bands appear to be widening, indicating rising uncertainty or market excitement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the 08:00–12:00 ET timeframe, with over 119,000 volume units traded during the peak hour. Notional turnover increased in parallel, confirming the price move higher. However, in the final 15-minute candle, volume declined slightly despite a price increase, hinting at potential exhaustion. This divergence may signal a pause or a consolidation phase ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels at 38.2% ($0.0426), 61.8% ($0.04429), and 100% ($0.0451) acted as price anchors during the final 4 hours of the session. Price closed near the 61.8% retracement level, which may act as short-term resistance. A retest of the 50% retracement level at $0.04301 could offer a potential pivot point for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy involving a long entry on a bullish engulfing pattern and breakout above the 61.8% Fibonacci level could have captured the key upswing in this 24-hour period. Entries made between $0.04101 and $0.0426 would have aligned with the breakout and continuation phases, particularly during the 08:00–12:00 ET window. Stop-loss levels placed below $0.04197 could have protected against early pullbacks while preserving exposure to the upward trend.