Trailer Orders Surge in November, but Market Remains Cautious

Trailer orders in the United States experienced a significant increase in November, according to data released by ACT Research and FTR Transportation Intelligence. However, the market remains cautious, as orders are still below expectations and the overall 2025 order season is shaping up to be well below expectations.

FTR reported that U.S. trailer net orders in November rose 42% month-over-month (m/m) and 6% year-over-year (y/y) to 22,745 units, the highest net order total since December 2023. This increase in orders indicates that businesses are anticipating a higher demand for goods and services in the coming year, as they invest in additional trailers to meet this expected growth. Additionally, ACT Research reported that November net trailer orders, at 20,800 units, were up 23% from October, suggesting that businesses are preparing for increased transportation needs in the coming months.

However, both firms noted that these totals were still below the year-ago levels, with FTR reporting a 6% year-over-year (y/y) increase and ACT Research reporting a 4% y/y decrease. When comparing these figures to historical data, it's clear that the trailer order trends in 2024 have been relatively weak compared to the previous year. For instance, ACT Research reported that year-to-date (YTD) orders in 2024 were down 34% compared to November 2023's total YTD orders. Additionally, FTR noted that the overall 2025 order season thus far (September-November 2024) was down 42% y/y to 50,651 units, averaging only 16,884 units per month.

These trends suggest that the trailer market is still recovering from the weak demand experienced earlier in the year. However, the recent increase in orders may indicate that the market is starting to stabilize and potentially rebound. As Jennifer McNealy, director–CV market research and publications at ACT Research, noted, "For the first time in nearly a year, order intake outpaced build, and by about 6,700 units. As a result, backlogs expanded almost 11% sequentially in November."

Despite the recent increase in orders, the market remains cautious, as the overall 2025 order season is still shaping up to be well below expectations. This weakness in orders indicates a slowdown in business investment, as fleets are prioritizing investments in new power units over trailers (ACT Research). This could have a ripple effect on consumer spending, as lower trailer orders may suggest a decrease in business confidence and investment, which could lead to reduced hiring, lower wages, or less consumer-friendly pricing.

The potential imposition of tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China could further exacerbate the situation. These tariffs could lead to higher trailer prices, altered trade cycles, and strains on fleet operator budgets (FTR). This could discourage businesses from investing in new trailers, as they may be more cautious about their spending due to increased uncertainty and potential higher costs.

In conclusion, while the recent increase in trailer orders is a positive sign for the market, the overall economic outlook for 2025 may face some challenges, particularly in the context of consumer spending and business investment. The market remains cautious, and investors should monitor the situation closely as the trailer market continues to recover from the weak demand experienced earlier in the year.