Trading the Storm: How Trump's Impatience Fuels Volatility and Opportunity in Global Markets

The U.S. trade policy landscape under President Donald Trump has long been defined by abrupt shifts, political theatrics, and a penchant for unilateral action. Now, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's candid remarks at the Sun Valley conference, a clearer picture emerges of how Trump's shared impatience with billionaire investor George Soros has amplified market volatility—and created exploitable opportunities in commodities and currencies.

Bessent, widely seen as Trump's fiscal strategist, revealed that the president's “trial-and-error” approach to trade—dubbed “FAFO” (“F--- Around and Find Out”)—mirrors the impatient deal-making style of Soros. This trait, while advantageous in high-stakes negotiations, has led to erratic tariff announcements that unsettle global markets. The result? A fertile environment for investors to capitalize on volatility in emerging markets, particularly those caught in the crossfire of sudden U.S. trade shifts.

The Anatomy of Impatience: Tariffs, Tensions, and Market Whiplash

Since 2023, Trump's administration has imposed steep tariffs on Brazil (50%) and Canada (35%), citing political tensions rather than economic rationale. These moves, delayed or accelerated on a whim, have destabilized supply chains and currencies. For instance, the Brazilian real and Canadian dollar have swung wildly in response to tariff deadlines, creating short-term trading opportunities.

Bessent's warnings about the administration's inconsistent messaging are key. When Trump delayed tariffs on Chinese goods from July 9 to August 1, markets reacted with confusion. The Federal Reserve's subsequent report noted “upward pressure on costs across all 12 districts,” underscoring how trade volatility bleeds into inflation.

The Emerging Markets Playbook: Commodities and Currency Futures

The impatience-driven policy landscape has left emerging markets exposed. Countries like Brazil and Mexico, which rely on U.S. trade, face currency instability. Meanwhile, commodities tied to these regions—soybeans, copper, and oil—experience price swings as tariffs disrupt supply-demand dynamics.

Investors can exploit this through two strategies:
1. Inverse Volatility ETFs: Instruments like XIV (VelocityShares Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN) or SVXY (ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF) profit from declines in the VIX. While risky, these ETFs can capture gains during sudden periods of calm after tariff decisions—such as when a deadline passes without action.
2. Short-Term Currency Futures: Betting against currencies like the Brazilian real or Canadian dollar ahead of tariff announcements can yield quick returns. For example, shorting the BRL/USD pair ahead of the August 1 deadline could capitalize on devaluation fears.

Risks and Considerations

Critics, including Senator Maria Cantwell, argue that Trump's unilateral tariffs erode U.S. competitiveness and fuel inflation. The Trade Review Act of 2025, if passed, could impose checks on executive trade authority, potentially reducing volatility. However, with the administration's legal battles over IEEPA powers still unresolved, uncertainty remains high.

Bessent's dismissal of a “Trump put” (market intervention via policy) is critical here. Investors must assume that volatility will persist unless structural reforms—like a rules-based trade system—are adopted. For now, the focus remains on exploiting short-term swings.

Conclusion: Navigate the Storm with Precision

Trump's impatience, when combined with Soros-like decisiveness, creates a volatile but predictable pattern: sudden moves, market overreactions, and eventual corrections. For traders, this means staying nimble.

• Position in inverse volatility ETFs during periods of peak uncertainty (e.g., tariff deadlines).
• Use currency futures to hedge against emerging market devaluations tied to U.S. trade actions.
• Avoid long-term bets on commodities unless tied to specific policy reversals.

As Bessent's FAFO strategy continues, investors who embrace the chaos—and have the discipline to exit quickly—will find pockets of profit in an otherwise turbulent market.