The Trade Desk Soars 9.8% — Is the Rally Here to Stay?

• Shares of The Trade Desk (TTD) surge 9.8% to $81.05 amid S&P 500 inclusion news.
• The stock’s 52-week high of $141.53 remains a distant target, but today’s move breaks a 35% YTD decline.
• Technicals show RSI at 67.41 — hovering near overbought levels as volume spikes to $362.67M.

Today’s rally marks a dramatic reversal for TTD, which had been languishing after a brutal year-long selloff. The S&P 500 inclusion catalyzes institutional buying, pushing prices 10% above yesterday’s close while traders scramble to assess new inflow potential.

S&P 500 Inclusion Sparks Institutional Buying Surge
The Trade Desk’s 9.8% surge stems directly from its impending addition to the S&P 500 index on July 18. This move replaces Ansys (ANSS), creating immediate demand from passive index funds rebalancing portfolios. Analysts estimate this could channel hundreds of millions into TTD shares, while Evercore ISI’s $90 price target adds fuel to the fire. The stock’s 7.45% intraday gain vs. Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 1.14% rise underscores its status as the day’s top gainer in internet content stocks.

Bullish Technicals & High-Impact Call Options to Watch
Technical Setup:
• 200-day MA: $92.64 (resistance)
• RSI: 67.41 (overbought territory)
• Bollinger Bands: Currently above upper band ($77.85) signaling breakout momentum

Bulls should target the $86.00 intraday high as initial resistance, with the $90 level representing the next critical hurdle. The First Trust Growth Strength ETF (FTGS) tracks this momentum but remains range-bound with -0.57% performance today.

Top Option Picks:
1. TTD20250725C80 (Call, $80 strike):
- Delta: 0.594 | Theta: -0.294 | Gamma: 0.0609 | Implied Vol: 45.24%
- Leverage Ratio: 25.36%
- Why it works: Straddles ATM with strong gamma exposure to amplify gains in a sustained rally. A 5% price rise to $85.10 yields $5.10 intrinsic value.

2. TTD20250725C83 (Call, $83 strike):
- Delta: 0.408 | Theta: -0.238 | Gamma: 0.0612 | Implied Vol: 45.01%
- Leverage Ratio: 45.59%
- Why it works: Offers asymmetric risk/reward with 45%+ leverage. Break above $86 could trigger a volatility explosion.

Trade Hook: Aggressive bulls may layer TTD20250725C80 while hedging with puts below $75 strikes to capture index inflow momentum.

Backtest The Trade Desk Stock Performance
The Trade Desk (TTD) experienced a significant boost in its stock performance following a 9% intraday surge. This surge was triggered by the company's announcement of its inclusion in the S&P 500, which took effect prior to the trading start on July 18, 2025. 1. Impact of S&P 500 Inclusion: The announcement of TTD's inclusion in the S&P 500 sparked immediate liquidity inflows, leading to an 8.8% intraday gain on July 15, 2025. The stock traded between $81.65 and $86.00, reflecting heightened market interest and investor confidence.2. Investor Sentiment: The positive sentiment surrounding TTD's inclusion in the S&P 500 was reflected in the stock's 15% surge in extended trading on the news. This indicates strong investor confidence in the company's future prospects.3. Financial Outlook: Despite a recent dip in the broader market, TTD's revenue forecast for the upcoming quarter remained robust at $684.33 million, indicating a 17.07% increase year-over-year. This positive financial outlook likely contributed to the surge in investor confidence and stock price.4. Market Response: The surge in TTD's stock price demonstrates the market's positive response to the company's inclusion in the S&P 500 and its strong financial outlook. This is a significant milestone for TTD, as it marks increased visibility and credibility in the market.In conclusion, TTD's performance following the 9% intraday surge demonstrates the market's positive response to the company's inclusion in the S&P 500 and its strong financial outlook. The stock's trajectory is indicative of favorable trends and investor confidence, which are likely to support continued growth and investment interest in the company.

Position for the S&P 500 Boost Momentum
The Trade Desk’s S&P 500 inclusion creates a structural tailwind, but traders must monitor two critical levels: $86 resistance and the $75 psychological floor. While Alphabet (GOOGL)’s 1.14% gain hints at sector stability, TTD’s breakout could trigger a rotation into undervalued digital advertising plays. Watch for sustained trading above the 200-day moving average ($92.64) to confirm this rally’s staying power. For now, the options market is pricing in a 45%-50% implied volatility premium — a bullish signal for buyers. Action item: Fade any dip below $80.50 with the July $80 calls as the S&P inflows begin.