Tractor Supply Jumps 7.5% in 3-Day Rally as Technicals Signal Bullish Momentum

Tractor Supply (TSCO) concluded the most recent session with a 4.28% gain, extending its rally to three consecutive days with a cumulative 7.50% advance. This upward momentum warrants a multi-faceted technical assessment of its price trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
The recent 3-day surge forms a robust bullish candlestick sequence. The latest session (June 5) printed a long-bodied white candle closing near its high ($52.03 vs. $51.45 close), following two smaller bullish candles. This pattern emerged near the critical $47.24–$47.85 support zone established on June 2–3. Immediate resistance resides at the $52.03–$52.31 double-top from May 13-14, with major resistance near the $55.00 psychological level that capped advances in April. These candles reflect increasing buyer conviction after testing lower bounds.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) is flattening near $50.80, while the 100-day MA at $52.15 and 200-day MA at $54.10 maintain downward slopes, signaling persistent long-term bearish pressure. Recent price action has reclaimed the 50-day MA but remains below both longer-term averages. A sustained break above the 100-day MA would suggest improving intermediate momentum, though the 200-day MA’s continued descent reinforces the overarching downtrend from March’s $57.21 peak.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD is developing a bullish crossover, with its histogram shifting positive as the signal line converges upward. This aligns with the KDJ oscillator’s trajectory: The %K line (83) has crossed above %D (75), entering overbought territory (>80) while still trending higher. Though MACD confirms strengthening upside momentum, KDJ’s overbought condition implies near-term exhaustion risk. Divergence is notable—MACD hasn’t yet matched March’s high while prices recover, suggesting latent weakness.
Bollinger Bands
Price has pushed above the 20-day Bollinger Band midline ($50.25) after three weeks of containment within the lower half of the bands. The bandwidth remains relatively narrow (2.8% volatility), indicating compressed energy. A close above the upper band ($52.90) would signal breakout potential, while failure to hold above the midline may trigger reversion toward the lower band ($47.60).
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 52% to 10.7M shares during the June 5 rally, validating bullish conviction—the highest single-day volume since April 24’s sell-off. The 3-day advance saw escalating volume, confirming accumulation. However, this follows a 20-day period of below-average volume, warranting ongoing scrutiny to ensure sustainability. Recent volume anomalies (e.g., April 9’s 7.5M shares on a 7% gain) highlight its importance in confirming breakouts.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI has rebounded from oversold conditions (29.3 on June 2) to a neutral 58.7. While avoiding overbought territory, the steep ascent reflects strong recovery momentum. Historically, TSCO’s RSI reversals from <30 preceded bounces (December 2024, February 2025). However, the indicator’s warning nature is underscored by its divergence during March’s $57.21 peak (RSI: 62 vs. February’s 73 peak).
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the March high ($57.21) and May low ($47.24) shows the price testing the 61.8% retracement level at $53.38 after breaching the 50% level ($52.23). The 78.6% level at $55.01 coincides with the 200-day MA and April’s rejection zone. Current momentum suggests potential for a test of $53.38–$55.01 confluence resistance, though failure there may reactivate downside toward the $48.80 (38.2%) support shelf.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence appears as volume-supported bullish momentum converges with MACD/KDJ upticks and the break above the 50-day MA, targeting $52.03–$52.31 resistance. However, divergences warrant caution: RSI and MACD lack corresponding strength relative to March’s highs, while Bollinger Band compression hints at unresolved volatility. Price faces a decisive test at Fib/MA resistance near $53.38–$55.01, where sustained volume will determine trend continuity.