La cotización de Tower Semiconductor se cae un 6% debido a temores regulatorios y turbulencias del sector: ¿Qué sigue para TSEM?

Summary
• Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) plunges 5.99% to $121.21, hitting an intraday low of $118.39
• Sector leader Intel (INTC) declines 3.45%, amplifying semiconductor sector jitters
• Options chain shows surging put buying at $115 strike ahead of Friday expiration

The semiconductor sector is under pressure as Tower Semiconductor’s sharp intraday selloff mirrors broader regulatory and geopolitical anxieties. With TSEM trading near its 52-week low of $28.64 and the sector grappling with U.S.-China tech tensions, investors are recalibrating positions. The stock’s collapse to $118.39—a 9.3% drop from its 52-week high—highlights the fragility of momentum in a market already reeling from Intel’s controversial tool testing and China’s $70 billion chip subsidy plans.

Regulatory Scrutiny and Sector-Wide Anxiety Fuel TSEM’s Freefall
Tower Semiconductor’s 6% intraday plunge is driven by a confluence of regulatory red flags and sector-wide uncertainty. Intel’s recent testing of tools from ACM Research—a firm with sanctioned Chinese ties—has reignited fears of U.S. technology leakage to Beijing. This development, coupled with China’s $70 billion chip subsidy announcement, has triggered a risk-off sentiment across the semiconductor sector. TSEM’s technical indicators—RSI at 94.2 (overbought), MACD above signal line, and a 52-week low near $28.64—suggest a breakdown in long-term bullish momentum. The stock’s sharp move below key support levels ($124.15, $100.44) aligns with institutional trading strategies that now favor short-term hedging.

Semiconductor Sector in Retreat as Intel’s Controversy Spreads
The semiconductor sector is broadly underperforming, with Intel’s 3.45% decline amplifying sector-wide concerns. TSEM’s selloff mirrors the broader market’s reaction to ACM Research’s tool testing, which has raised alarms about national security risks and supply chain integrity. While Tower Semiconductor’s decline is steeper than the sector average, its technical profile—trading near 200-day moving average ($56.94) and with elevated implied volatility (89.99% on $115 puts)—reflects heightened sensitivity to regulatory overhangs. The sector’s exposure to U.S.-China tech tensions remains a critical overhang.

Options and ETF Plays for TSEM’s Volatile Outlook
• Technical Indicators:
- 200-day average: $56.94 (far below)
- RSI: 94.2 (overbought)
- MACD: 10.08 (bullish divergence)
- Bollinger Bands: $131.16 (upper), $83.94 (lower)

TSEM’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias despite long-term bullish signals. Key levels to watch include $124.15 (mid-term support) and $100.44 (long-term support). The stock’s elevated RSI and MACD divergence indicate potential for a pullback, while the 52-week low ($28.64) remains a distant floor. With no leveraged ETF data available, options remain the primary vehicle for positioning.

Top Options Picks:
• TSEM20251219P115 (Put Option)
- Strike: $115, Expiry: 12/19
- IV: 60.82% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.258 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.049 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.0296 (moderate sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $28,518 (high liquidity)
- LVR: 68.16% (high leverage)
- Price change: +117.07% (surging demand)
- Why it stands out: This put offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a potential $115 breakdown. A 5% downside scenario (to $115.15) would yield a $0.15 payoff, but the 68% leverage ratio amplifies gains if TSEM continues to weaken.

• TSEM20251219C120 (Call Option)
- Strike: $120, Expiry: 12/19
- IV: 50.99% (reasonable)
- Delta: 0.577 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.564 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.0427 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $83,866 (high liquidity)
- LVR: 27.64% (moderate leverage)
- Price change: -52.39% (oversold)
- Why it stands out: This call is positioned for a rebound above $120. A 5% upside scenario (to $127.27) would yield a $7.27 payoff, but the high gamma makes it responsive to volatility spikes. However, theta decay is a risk if the rebound is delayed.

Trading Outlook: Aggressive bulls may consider TSEM20251219C120 into a bounce above $124.15, while bears should watch for a breakdown below $115. If $100.44 holds, the stock could stabilize, but a breach of $83.94 would signal deeper trouble.

Backtest Tower Semiconductor Stock Performance
The backtest of TSEM's performance after an intraday plunge of at least -6% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 54.95%, the 10-Day win rate is 53.26%, and the 30-Day win rate is 55.58%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest was 7.35% over 30 days, suggesting that while there is volatility, TSEM can exhibit strong recovery gains.

TSEM at Crossroads: Regulatory Risks vs. Institutional Longs
Tower Semiconductor’s 6% intraday selloff underscores the sector’s vulnerability to regulatory and geopolitical shifts. While technical indicators suggest a short-term bearish bias, institutional long-term support at $100.44 and $80.17 remains intact. Investors must balance the immediate risks of U.S.-China tech tensions with the stock’s long-term growth potential. Sector leader Intel’s 3.45% decline amplifies the urgency for clarity. Action Alert: Watch for a breakdown below $115 or a rebound above $124.15. If $100.44 holds, TSEM could retest its 52-week high of $129.58 by year-end.