TotalEnergies Plunges 4.28% Amid Geopolitical Turmoil and Analyst Divergence

Summary
• TotalEnergies (TTE) trades at $63.47, down 4.28% intraday, with a 52-week high of $66.92 and low of $52.78.
• Analysts remain split, with a consensus 'Hold' rating and a $58.50 price target indicating 10.8% downside.
• Venezuela’s oil production cuts and OPEC+ output stability weigh on energy markets, while U.S. majors like Chevron rise 8% year-to-date.

TotalEnergies’ sharp intraday decline reflects a volatile energy landscape shaped by geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ policy, and divergent analyst sentiment. With the stock trading near its 52-week low and analysts forecasting mixed outcomes, traders must navigate a complex interplay of short-term risks and long-term value signals.

Venezuela Crisis and OPEC+ Stance Fuel Short-Term Volatility
TotalEnergies’ 4.28% intraday drop is driven by escalating geopolitical risks in Venezuela, where U.S. sanctions and PDVSA’s production cuts disrupt supply chains. The White House’s push to revive U.S. oil majors in Venezuela has created uncertainty, while OPEC+’s decision to maintain Q1 2026 output quotas has failed to stabilize prices. Meanwhile, U.S. peers like Chevron and ExxonMobil have surged on Trump-era policy optimism, highlighting TTE’s vulnerability to regional and sector-specific headwinds. Analysts warn that short-term volatility will persist as Venezuela’s oil infrastructure remains in flux and global demand outlooks remain weak.

Energy Sector Mixed as TTE Trails Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
The energy sector remains fragmented, with U.S. oil majors like Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) rising 8-11% year-to-date amid Trump’s Venezuela policy. In contrast, TotalEnergies lags as European peers like Shell (SHEL) and BP (BP) face similar geopolitical risks. The S&P 500 Energy index has gained 5% in 2025, but TTE’s 4.28% drop underscores its sensitivity to European regulatory and geopolitical pressures. Analysts note that TTE’s exposure to Venezuela and its cautious OPEC+ stance make it a laggard in a sector otherwise buoyed by U.S. policy shifts.

Options and ETFs for Navigating TTE’s Volatility
• MACD: 0.429 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.442 (bearish), Histogram: -0.014 (neutral)
• RSI: 53.8 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: 63.44–66.67 (bearish bias)
• 200D MA: $61.59 (below current price), 100D MA: $62.84 (below current price)

TotalEnergies is trading near key support levels, with technical indicators suggesting a potential rebound or further decline. The 200-day moving average at $61.59 and Bollinger Bands’ lower bound at $63.44 offer critical thresholds to watch. A break below $63.44 could trigger a test of the 52-week low at $52.78, while a rebound above $66.67 may attract short-term buyers.

Top Options Picks:
• TTE20260116P65 (Put, $65 strike, 1/16/2026):
- IV: 18.67% (moderate), Leverage: 35.28%, Delta: -0.761 (deep in-the-money), Theta: -0.074 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.150 (high sensitivity).
- This put option offers strong downside protection if TTE breaks below $63.44, with high leverage amplifying gains in a bearish scenario.
• TTE20260116C65 (Call, $65 strike, 1/16/2026):
- IV: 23.87% (moderate), Leverage: 135.11%, Delta: 0.291 (moderate), Theta: -0.019 (low time decay), Gamma: 0.130 (high sensitivity).
- A speculative call for a rebound above $66.67, with high leverage and gamma making it responsive to price swings.

Payoff Estimation:
• Put (TTE20260116P65): A 5% downside to $60.30 yields a payoff of $4.70 (strike $65 - $60.30).
• Call (TTE20260116C65): A 5% upside to $66.64 yields a payoff of $1.64 (strike $65 - $66.64).

Trading Outlook: Aggressive bulls may consider TTE20260116C65 into a bounce above $66.67, while bears should monitor the $63.44 support level for a potential breakdown.

Backtest TotalEnergies Stock Performance
The backtest of TTE's performance after an intraday plunge of -4% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 54.98%, the 10-Day win rate is 56.11%, and the 30-Day win rate is 58.37%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 2.43%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that while the gains may not be substantial, they can still lead to positive outcomes with a strategic approach.

Act Now: Position for TTE’s Volatile Near-Term Outlook
TotalEnergies’ 4.28% intraday drop reflects a fragile balance between geopolitical risks and sector-specific optimism. While the stock trades near key support at $63.44, OPEC+’s output stance and Venezuela’s instability suggest volatility will persist. Traders should prioritize the TTE20260116P65 put for downside protection or the TTE20260116C65 call for a speculative rebound. Watch for a breakdown below $63.44 or a rebound above $66.67 to dictate next steps. Meanwhile, sector leader ExxonMobil (XOM) has fallen 2.34%, signaling broader energy market jitters. Position now to capitalize on TTE’s pivotal price levels.