Toronto Stock Exchange Momentum and Valuation Opportunities in Silver-Focused Producers: A Deep Dive into Aya Gold & Silver

The Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) has emerged as a powerhouse for small-cap miners in 2025, with silver-focused producers capturing significant investor attention. According to a Mining Weekly report, 17 mining companies dominated the TSX30 ranking over a three-year period, 15 of which were gold producers. However, the rising industrial demand for silver-driven by renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing-has shifted the spotlight to silver miners like Aya Gold & Silver (TSX: AYA). This article examines the valuation dynamics of silver-focused producers on the TSX, with a detailed analysis of Aya's operational and financial performance in 2025.

TSX Momentum: Small-Cap Miners and the Energy Transition

The TSX's two-tier market structure has proven effective in nurturing early-stage explorers into established producers. As of 2025, 11 of the 17 top-performing TSX30 companies were TSX-V graduates, the Mining Weekly report also found. This trend aligns with global demand for critical minerals, particularly silver, which is essential for solar panels, EV batteries, and electronics. Silver prices surged to a 14-year high of $38.96 per ounce in July 2025, fueled by structural supply deficits and geopolitical tensions, according to an Accio analysis. Analysts from Citigroup and HSBC project silver prices to reach $40 and $35.14 by 2025, respectively, according to the Accio analysis, creating a tailwind for miners with low-cost production and scalable operations.

Aya Gold & Silver: Operational Excellence and Financial Resilience

Aya Gold & Silver has emerged as a standout performer in the silver sector. In Q3 2025, the company reported record production of 1.35 million ounces of silver, a 29% increase quarter-over-quarter, driven by higher throughput and improved grades at its Zgounder mine in Morocco in a GlobeNewswire release. The company processed 3,326 tonnes of ore per day-23% above nameplate capacity-and achieved a 92.5% silver recovery rate, exceeding feasibility study expectations, the release added.

Financially, Aya has strengthened its liquidity through strategic financing. A C$144 million equity raise in Q2 2025 provided $114 million in cash reserves, according to an Aya press release, while a $25 million credit facility from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) further bolstered its balance sheet. Despite cash costs of $21.26 per silver ounce in Q2 2025-driven by early-stage operations-management anticipates normalization as the Zgounder plant stabilizes, the Aya press release noted.

Valuation Metrics: Aya vs. Industry Averages

Aya's valuation metrics highlight both opportunities and risks. As of October 2025, the company trades at a trailing P/E ratio of -104.16 (indicating losses) and an enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of 363.12, according to StockAnalysis metrics. These figures starkly contrast with industry averages for TSX silver miners, where the broader mining sector has an average EV/EBITDA of 8.58, per eVal industry multiples. While Aya's high valuation reflects investor optimism about its growth potential, it also underscores the company's current unprofitability.

Comparatively, peers like First Majestic Silver (TSX: AG) and Pan American Silver (TSX: PAAS) trade at more conservative multiples, with market caps of $2.33 billion and $8.90 billion, respectively; these peer figures were also noted in the GlobeNewswire release. Aya's price-to-sales ratio of 17.8x, reported in the Aya press release, is also elevated, suggesting investors are paying a premium for its production growth and exploration potential.

Silver Price Trends and Valuation Opportunities

The structural supply deficit in silver-estimated at 149 million ounces in 2025, according to the Accio analysis-creates a compelling backdrop for miners with scalable operations. Aya's focus on low-cost, high-grade silver production positions it to benefit from sustained price appreciation. Additionally, the gold-silver ratio, currently at extreme levels of 90-100:1 compared to the historical average of 65:1 (per the Accio analysis), suggests silver is undervalued relative to gold. Analysts argue this imbalance could correct, further boosting silver's appeal as both a safe-haven asset and an industrial commodity.

However, volatility remains a key risk. Silver's historical volatility (1.5x that of gold) could amplify earnings fluctuations for miners like Aya, the Accio analysis warns. Geopolitical uncertainties in regions like Russia and Kazakhstan also pose supply-side risks, though Aya's operations in Morocco mitigate some of these concerns.

Conclusion: Aya Gold & Silver as a High-Conviction Play

Aya Gold & Silver's operational momentum, coupled with favorable silver price trends, positions it as a high-conviction opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the energy transition. While its valuation metrics appear stretched relative to peers, the company's production growth, financial flexibility, and exploration upside justify a long-term outlook. As the TSX continues to reward innovation and scalability in small-cap miners, Aya's ability to navigate cost challenges and capitalize on rising silver demand will be critical to unlocking its full potential.