"Toncoin's Volatility Plummets: Bearish Signs Emerge Amidst Uncertain Future"

Toncoin's volatility has reached an all-time low, raising questions about the cryptocurrency's future price trajectory. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the narrowing of Bollinger Bands around the TON price on the 12-hour chart, indicating reduced volatility. This phenomenon often precedes a significant price movement, but the direction remains uncertain.

Price action and metrics suggest caution for buyers. The Toncoin network's daily active addresses peaked in August but have since remained relatively subdued. Even the November rally failed to attract a substantial number of participants. Network growth, which measures the number of new addresses created on the network, has also maintained its level since October. Over the past two weeks, both active addresses and network growth metrics have fallen slightly.

The supply distribution chart shows an increase in addresses with small holdings (100 TON or fewer) since October. Addresses with 1-100 TON have maintained their numbers without growth since January 24th. Meanwhile, larger addresses have steadily dwindled, indicating active selling. The 10k-100k cohort has grown over the past three weeks but saw a decline last week.

The On-Balance Volume (OBV) of Toncoin has sunk below November lows and is holding on to the September lows. The price has lost the range lows from recent months and has retested the $3.42 support level, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This critical retracement level was expected to be defended, but weak network activity and increased selling volume in recent weeks suggest that a price expansion could be southward. The swing market structure is firmly bearish on the daily chart.

A resurgence in the altcoin market could fuel a Toncoin rally and inspire bulls. However, until the $4.5 level is reclaimed as support, swing traders should maintain a bearish bias. The cryptocurrency's future price movement will depend on various factors, including network activity, market sentiment, and overall market conditions.