Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-11-10

Summary
• Price drifted in a tight range, with a 2.145 high and 2.099 low, closing near 2.103.
• Volatility expanded in the afternoon before contracting, suggesting consolidation.
• High turnover occurred near key levels in the early morning, with volume-driven moves seen.

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at 2.137 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 2.145, and a low of 2.099, closing at 2.103 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-10. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 2,637,543.07, and total notional turnover was approximately $5,568,382.28. The pair displayed a mix of consolidation and intermittent volatility, with key support and resistance levels defining the session.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern suggested a bearish bias in the early hours, with several long lower wicks indicating support attempts at ~2.107 and ~2.115. A morning breakdown attempt was countered by late-morning buying, forming a small bullish engulfing pattern at ~2.125. Later, a doji formed at ~2.13, hinting at indecision. The afternoon saw a slow descent below 2.12, ending the session with bearish momentum.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute 20SMA and 50SMA crossed twice, with price hovering just above the 50SMA around midday before crossing below it by 16:45 ET. On the daily chart, price remained below the 50DMA and 200DMA, indicating a longer-term bearish trend. The 100DMA served as a weak resistance zone (~2.13) during the afternoon.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative during the morning, confirming bearish momentum, with the line dipping below the signal line after 15:00 ET. RSI hit an overbought level briefly (~59.2) before falling below 50 mid-morning and remaining below for the rest of the day. This suggests a potential for further downside unless a bullish reversal is confirmed above 2.125.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the early afternoon, reflecting increased volatility around 2.13–2.115. Price spent most of the session within the band, but a late-day contraction suggested a potential breakout attempt. A close below the lower band (~2.10) would likely confirm a bearish continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at ~2.125 and ~2.115, indicating order book imbalances at key levels. The highest volume (~296,798.34) occurred at 03:45 ET as price tested ~2.131. Turnover closely tracked volume, with no significant divergence observed, suggesting that price movements were backed by conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 2.145 to 2.099, the 61.8% level (~2.116) held briefly but failed to provide lasting support. The 38.2% level (~2.127) was retested twice, with mixed results. On a daily chart, the 50% retracement of the broader move remains at ~2.125—currently acting as a key pivot level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum as seen in MACD and RSI behavior, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions when the 20SMA crosses below the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop above the 50SMA and a 5-day holding period. This would aim to capture short-term momentum in a consolidating market. However, such a strategy would require robust filtering for false signals, especially during high-volatility periods when Bollinger Bands expand.