Toncoin/Tether Market Overview – October 9, 2025

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of $2.785, followed by a consolidation phase near $2.75.
• RSI and MACD showed mixed momentum signals—short-term bullish but with signs of weakening.
• Volatility expanded post-noon ET, with $2.75–$2.77 acting as a tight range during the last 6 hours.
• Volume spiked after $2.75, confirming a potential support level but not a breakout.
• Key resistance at $2.78, support near $2.74, and a bearish engulfing pattern observed at the high.

Opening Snapshot

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $2.717 on October 8 at 12:00 ET and closed at $2.695 on October 9 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was $2.785, and the low reached $2.682. Total volume was 2,666,602.80, with notional turnover at $7,324,297.80. The pair appears to be consolidating after a volatile midday spike.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a distinct bearish engulfing pattern at $2.78–$2.75, indicating a shift in sentiment. Key support levels at $2.75 and $2.72 were tested and partially held. Resistance is currently at $2.78 and $2.74. A doji at $2.75 suggests indecision among traders around this level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 50-period MA is at $2.75, acting as a dynamic support. The 20-period MA is slightly above it, indicating short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA is at $2.73, and price is approaching it, suggesting a potential reversal point.

MACD & RSI

MACD remains negative, indicating bearish momentum, but the divergence between price and RSI is narrowing. RSI is at 48, neutral, but previously hit overbought levels at 65 before retreating. This suggests that while buyers tried to assert control, sellers retook the lead post-noon.

Bollinger Bands

The 20-period Bollinger Bands have expanded as the price action became more volatile during the morning. Price closed near the middle band, suggesting a potential continuation of consolidation. A break above $2.785 or below $2.682 could trigger a significant widening.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged after 12:00 ET as price dropped below $2.75, peaking at $2.7 with a turnover of $270,105. Notional turnover and price action aligned, suggesting a genuine pullback rather than a false break.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels for the recent high of $2.785 to low of $2.682 are $2.74 (38.2%) and $2.71 (61.8%). The price has tested $2.75 and may find support at $2.74 before facing a critical decision point.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a short bias triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern and a RSI above 60, followed by a stop-loss at the 20-period MA. A profit target could be set at $2.68, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The high volume and confirmed break below $2.75 suggest this setup has a strong short-term probability.