Toncoin/Tether Market Overview

• TONUSDT traded in a bullish consolidation, closing 0.48% higher near 2.80.
• Key resistance at 2.84–2.85 and support at 2.79–2.80 defined intraday action.
• Volume surged in the afternoon before tapering at close, with no clear divergence in turnover.
• RSI showed moderate momentum with no overbought/oversold signals.
• Bollinger Bands tightened mid-day, followed by a break higher into the upper band.

Price Action and Daily Summary

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at 2.786 on October 2, 2025, and closed at 2.800 at 12:00 ET on October 3, reaching a high of 2.849 and a low of 2.786. The price moved within a defined range, with notable consolidation forming above 2.80. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 2,823,024.75, and turnover amounted to approximately $7,937,505 (based on average trade price).

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bullish bias in the early afternoon, with a strong move from 2.821 to a high of 2.849. A key resistance appears to be forming at 2.84–2.85, while 2.79–2.80 acted as strong support. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 20:45 ET as the price broke out of the consolidation. Later, a small bearish engulfing pattern formed around 00:15 ET, but it failed to push prices below the 2.80 level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above the price midday, indicating a bullish bias. The daily chart showed the 50-period MA at 2.803 and the 200-period MA at 2.797, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish short-term setup. Price hovered around the 200-day MA but did not show strong momentum to break through convincingly.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive in the afternoon and crossed above the signal line, reinforcing the bullish setup. The histogram showed moderate positive divergence. RSI remained in the 50–60 range for much of the session, signaling moderate strength with no overbought conditions. A bearish RSI dip occurred briefly around 00:15 ET, but it failed to confirm a bearish move.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened between 2.81 and 2.83 in the early afternoon, signaling a period of low volatility. Price then broke out of this consolidation and tested the upper band, reaching a high of 2.849. The price closed near the middle band, suggesting a potential continuation or consolidation in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume peaked at midday as the price pushed higher toward 2.849, with a single 15-minute candle at 19:15 ET showing a volume spike of 131,229. The volume then declined sharply after 00:00 ET, with the 00:15 ET candle showing the largest turnover due to a bearish price move. However, the volume failed to confirm the bearish price action, suggesting a lack of conviction in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 2.84 during a midday rally, which acted as strong resistance. A 38.2% retracement level at 2.81 acted as support during the late-night consolidation. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the prior week’s move was at 2.85, which aligns with the key resistance level observed in the 15-minute chart.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 20-period and 50-period moving average crossover as entry signals, combined with a stop-loss placed at the previous swing low. Given the recent bullish engulfing pattern and the strong MACD divergence, a long bias could be justified. The 2.79–2.80 level would serve as a critical support area to monitor. This approach aligns with the observed technical bias and the consolidation patterns seen in the 15-minute timeframe.