Toncoin Surges 10% Breaking $3.00 Mark After Months of Compression

Toncoin (TON) has experienced a significant breakout, surging past the $3.00 mark for the first time since early June. This move comes after months of compression within a descending triangle pattern, which had capped the upside since late 2024. The breakout was marked by a 10% single-day move, indicating a potential structural reversal and a mid-term trend change.

The technical indicators support this bullish sentiment. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator has spiked, showing a strong inflow of volume. The True Strength Index (TSI) has also started to curl upward after months of negative readings, suggesting that momentum may be shifting in favor of the bulls. Additionally, the 4-hour chart shows that Toncoin price action has blasted through the $2.93–$3.00 resistance band and flipped the Supertrend indicator bullish. The breakout also cleared a declining trendline and was supported by strong DMI readings, with the +DI leading sharply and ADX rising, indicating a strong trending environment.

The breakout is not just technical; it is also supported by surging market participation. Derivatives data shows that open interest has climbed nearly 40% to $285.9M, while volume soared by 525% in the past 24 hours. The long/short ratio across major exchanges is above 1.5, showing buyers clearly dominating the flow. This increased market participation suggests that the breakout is backed by strong structural support.

Looking ahead, Toncoin price now faces a critical challenge: consolidating above $3.00 without giving up its breakout gains. A brief retest of the $2.95–$3.00 zone may occur before a potential continuation toward the next resistance near $3.20–$3.25, which aligns with early June supply. If price sustains above $3.05, bulls may aim for $3.38 followed by $3.55. However, if profit-taking emerges and price falls below $2.92 again, the move risks becoming a failed breakout.

With the TSI rising, MACD bullish, and derivatives positioning favoring longs, the near-term tone remains positive. Traders should monitor the $2.95–$3.00 retest zone and volume flow into the weekend. The Bollinger Bands and EMAs also confirm the breakout expansion, with the 4-hour Bollinger Bands showing a textbook squeeze-breakout move. Price pushed from the lower band near $2.65 to spike past the upper band around $3.05. This expansion signals the beginning of a fresh volatility cycle, typically associated with strong directional moves. Moreover, the 20/50/100/200 EMAs are all now stacked below current price, with the 200 EMA at $2.94 acting as strong support. The candle body also closed decisively above these dynamic levels, showing a clear break in prior trend resistance.