Toncoin Dips to $1.42 as Short-Sellers Gain Control Amid Weak Market Sentiment

Toncoin (TON) stabilized near $1.45 on Friday after hitting a two-month low the previous day. Despite the recent launch of tokenized U.S. equities on the TON blockchain via xStocks, bearish momentum continued to dominate the market. Technical indicators suggested further downward pressure on the asset.

The xStocks initiative, backed by Kraken, brought tokenized equities like Apple and Microsoft directly into TON Wallet. This development was seen as a major step toward real-world adoption for the TON blockchain. However, TON's price dipped to $1.42 by Friday, reflecting ongoing selling pressure.

Derivatives data from Coinglass reinforced a negative outlook. The OI-Weighted Funding Rate turned negative, signaling that short positions were gaining strength. Meanwhile, the long-to-short ratio for TON hit 0.36, the highest level in a month.

Market Conditions and Technical Indicators

Technical analysis of TON's price movement pointed toward continued bearish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 34 on the daily chart, well below the neutral level of 50. This indicated that downward momentum was gaining traction in the market.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bearish crossover, reinforcing the negative outlook.

TON had previously rejected the upper trendline of a falling wedge pattern on December 10, leading to a 14% decline and a two-month low at $1.42.

If TON continues its downward trend, it could reach the next daily support level at $1.31. A rebound might push the price toward the 50-day EMA at $1.76. Traders and investors are closely watching whether TON can stabilize above this level without triggering further selling.

Risks to the Outlook

The broader crypto market remains under pressure, with Bitcoin and Ethereum showing signs of consolidation. TON, however, has underperformed more significantly in recent weeks. This relative weakness has been amplified by macroeconomic uncertainties, including shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations and reduced risk appetite.

In addition, TON's price action is influenced by its token distribution dynamics. A relatively concentrated ownership structure means that large holders can impact short-term price movements. In a tightening liquidity environment, this structural feature tends to accelerate declines.

Market sentiment indicators also suggest ongoing caution. Despite localized rebounds, TON's recovery has been weaker than the broader market. This points to a lack of bullish confidence and increased sensitivity to volatility.

What This Means for Investors

For investors and traders, the current environment presents both risks and potential opportunities. If TON continues to lag the broader market, its price may face further declines or prolonged consolidation. On the other hand, if macroeconomic conditions improve and risk appetite returns, TON's oversold condition could offer greater rebound potential.

Support levels will be key in determining the asset's near-term trajectory. Confirmation of a strong rebound from $1.42 could improve the risk-reward profile for bulls. However, any break below critical support thresholds may trigger additional selling pressure.

Long-term investors should remain cautious but not entirely bearish. TON's fundamental potential is still intact, particularly with the growing adoption of tokenized assets on the TON blockchain. The key will be whether the market sees a stabilization of both technical and macroeconomic conditions in the coming months.