TON -4387.37% YOY Amid Network Upgrades and Community Governance Shifts

On SEP 8 2025, TON dropped by 6.46% within 24 hours to reach $3.1, TON dropped by 264.48% within 7 days, dropped by 230.65% within 1 month, and dropped by 4387.37% within 1 year.

The TON ecosystem continues to evolve with recent developments in governance and network infrastructure. Developers have announced a significant shift in the decentralized governance model, which aims to streamline decision-making and reduce reliance on centralized nodes. These changes are expected to enhance network security and scalability, though they have yet to produce immediate market impact. Community stakeholders have been active in discussions around tokenomics adjustments, with a focus on aligning incentives across validators and stakers.

Technical indicators suggest that TON is currently in a bearish trend across multiple timeframes. The 50-period and 200-period moving averages have both been breached, reinforcing a broader downtrend. The relative strength index (RSI) has fallen below 30, indicating oversold conditions. However, traders have noted that RSI readings in this range have historically failed to produce consistent rebounds, suggesting caution in interpreting oversold signals as potential reversal points. The on-balance volume (OBV) has been declining for the past several weeks, signaling continued outflows of interest from institutional and large-cap investors.

Backtest Hypothesis

Analysts have tested a strategy based on the technical signals observed in TON’s recent performance. The backtest utilized a trend-following model that entered short positions when the 50-period moving average crossed below the 200-period line (a bearish "death cross") and closed positions when RSI crossed above 40 as a potential exit point. The strategy was applied to historical TON price data from the past year and generated a negative return on average, with higher drawdowns in the first three months of the backtesting period. The model performed best during periods of strong downward momentum but was ineffective during sideways or range-bound phases. The backtesting results suggest that while technical indicators can confirm bearish sentiment, they may not be sufficient on their own to generate profits in highly volatile or declining markets.