SOON Token Faces 26% Drop Ahead of Major Unlock: Assessing Risks and Strategic Pathways

The SOON token's 26% price plunge on November 16, 2025, has cast a shadow over its short-term outlook, driven by an impending token unlock scheduled for November 23. This event, set to release 15.21 million tokens-4.3% of the circulating supply-has triggered a wave of selling pressure, with traders anticipating a flood of liquidity that could exacerbate downward momentum. According to a report by Ambcrypto, the unlock's estimated $32 million market value has already prompted a $6.29 million liquidity exit in derivatives markets, as investors close positions to mitigate risk.

Technical and Behavioral Triggers Behind the Selloff

The selloff is rooted in both technical indicators and behavioral dynamics. On the technical front, SOON's price has collapsed to a critical support band between $2.00 and $1.94, a level that has historically acted as a psychological floor since November 7. A break below $1.94 could signal a deeper breakdown, potentially targeting the next support at $1.80, as per Ambcrypto's analysis. Concurrently, the negative Funding Rate of -1.1307% underscores bearish sentiment in perpetual futures markets, where traders are actively shorting the token to hedge against further declines according to market data.

Behaviorally, the market is reacting to the "unlock event" as a catalyst for panic selling. Token unlocks often create uncertainty, as large holders-such as early investors or developers-gain access to previously restricted liquidity. This dynamic has historically led to sharp price corrections, particularly in tokens with lower market capitalizations. The $32 million worth of tokens set to be released represents a significant portion of SOON's circulating supply, amplifying fears of a "dump" scenario where sellers overwhelm buyers.

Likelihood of a Deeper Decline: A Technical Assessment

If the $1.94 support level fails, the path of least resistance for SOON could shift decisively lower. Historical data from November 2025 shows that the token has tested this level multiple times without breaking through-until the recent 26% drop. Ambcrypto notes that a sustained close below $1.94 would invalidate the current bullish case and likely trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders, accelerating the sell-off.

The risk is compounded by weak on-chain metrics. The $6.29 million liquidity withdrawal in derivatives markets suggests that institutional and retail traders are reducing exposure ahead of the unlock. This flight to safety could create a self-fulfilling prophecy, where reduced buying pressure allows sellers to dominate the market.

Strategic Trading Roadmap for the Unlock Event

For traders navigating this volatile period, a multi-layered approach is essential:

1. Short-Term Hedging: Positioning for a potential breakdown below $1.94 could involve shorting SOON against stablecoins or using derivatives to bet on further declines. Stop-loss orders should be placed just above $2.00 to limit losses if the support holds.
2. Long-Term Holders: Investors with a longer time horizon might consider accumulating dips near key support levels, provided the unlock does not trigger a broader market selloff. However, this strategy carries significant risk if the $1.94 level collapses.
3. Post-Unlock Monitoring: After November 23, traders should closely watch the rate at which unlocked tokens are sold. A gradual release could stabilize the price, while a rapid dump would likely deepen the downtrend.

Conclusion

SOON's 26% drop ahead of the unlock event highlights the precarious balance between liquidity risk and market psychology. While the $1.94 support level offers a temporary reprieve, the broader technical and behavioral indicators suggest a high probability of further declines if this threshold is breached. Traders must remain vigilant, leveraging both technical analysis and real-time market sentiment to navigate the upcoming volatility.