TLRY cae 7.9% mientras se disipan las esperanzas de reforma federal de la marihuana: ¿qué viene para las acciones de cannabis?

Summary
• Tilray Brands (TLRY) slumps 7.9% to $11.19, erasing Friday’s 44.1% surge on reclassification rumors.
• Intraday range of $10.97–$12.59 highlights volatile swing amid regulatory uncertainty.
• Options chain sees 20 contracts trading with implied volatility surging to 226.72% on 12/19 expirations.

Today’s dramatic reversal for Tilray Brands underscores the precarious state of the cannabis sector. After Friday’s euphoric rally fueled by unconfirmed reports of a potential Trump executive order to reclassify marijuana, investors are now recalibrating expectations as the White House remains silent. The stock’s 7.9% intraday drop reflects a broader market skepticism, with technical indicators and options activity painting a picture of heightened volatility and short-term uncertainty.

Marijuana Reclassification Hopes Fade as Trump Admin Remains Silent
The sharp intraday decline in Tilray Brands follows a reversal of sentiment after Friday’s 44.1% surge. While initial reports suggested President Trump would sign an executive order reclassifying marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III, the White House has since offered no confirmation. Barron’s and Investopedia reports highlight the lack of progress, with a spokesperson stating 'no final decisions have been made.' This regulatory ambiguity has triggered profit-taking and renewed caution, as investors weigh the likelihood of delayed reforms against the company’s ongoing operational challenges, including persistent losses and pricing pressures.

Options Playbook: High-Volatility Contracts and Technical Signals for TLRY
• MACD: 2.21 (above signal line 1.43), RSI: 92.15 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: Upper $11.84, Middle $4.20
• 200D MA: $1.18 (far below current price), Turnover Rate: 25.7% (high liquidity)

Technical indicators scream caution: RSI at 92.15 signals overbought conditions, while MACD remains elevated above its signal line. The 200-day moving average ($1.18) is a distant support level, suggesting short-term momentum is fragile. For options traders, the 12/19 expiration cycle offers two standout contracts:

• TLRY20251219C11 (Call): Delta 0.576, IV 226.72%, Leverage 8.87%, Theta -0.159, Gamma 0.132, Turnover $403,479
• TLRY20251219P11 (Put): Delta -0.424, IV 224.06%, Leverage 10.44%, Theta -0.066, Gamma 0.134, Turnover $335,761

TLRY20251219C11 offers aggressive upside potential with a 8.87% leverage ratio and high gamma (0.132), making it sensitive to price swings. A 5% downside to $10.58 would yield a call payoff of $0 (strike $11), but its high IV (226.72%) suggests volatility could extend beyond 12/19. TLRY20251219P11 provides bearish exposure with a -0.424 delta and 10.44% leverage, ideal for a 5% drop to $10.58, yielding a put payoff of $0.41. Both contracts benefit from high turnover and moderate theta decay, but the call’s higher gamma makes it more responsive to sudden rallies. Aggressive bulls may consider TLRY20251219C11 into a bounce above $11.84, while bears should eye TLRY20251219P11 for a breakdown below $10.97.

Backtest Tilray Brands Stock Performance
The backtest of TLRY's performance after a -8% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the 3-Day and 10-Day win rates are above 40%, the 30-Day win rate is slightly lower at 39.55%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 0.85%, indicating that while there were some positive returns, they were relatively modest.

TLRY’s Volatility to Continue – Watch for Sector Leadership Cues
Tilray Brands’ 7.9% intraday drop underscores the sector’s dependence on regulatory clarity, with the White House’s silence prolonging uncertainty. While technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, the options market remains heated, with IV at 226.72% on 12/19 contracts. Investors should monitor the $10.97 support level and the $11.84 Bollinger Band upper bound for directional clues. Meanwhile, sector leader Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rose 1.46%, signaling broader market confidence in pharmaceuticals. For TLRY, the path forward hinges on Trump’s next move—investors must brace for another volatile swing if reclassification rumors resurface. Watch for $10.97 breakdown or regulatory reaction.