TJX alcanza un nivel récord: ¿Qué está impulsando este gigante del comercio minorista?

Summary
• The TJX Companies (TJX) hits an all-time high of $157.84, trading 2.45% above its previous close.
• Analysts at UBS and Deutsche Bank raise price targets, with Deutsche Bank setting a $184 target.
• A new T.J. Maxx store in Lincoln Park, Chicago, signals retail expansion momentum.

The TJX Companies has surged to a record high, driven by a confluence of analyst upgrades, retail expansion, and strong financial performance. With a 2.45% intraday gain and a price of $157.82, the stock has outperformed the Consumer Cyclical sector, which rose 1.49% on the same day. This rally reflects confidence in TJX's off-price retail model and its ability to capitalize on shifting consumer spending patterns.

Analyst Optimism and Retail Expansion Drive TJX to Record High
The TJX Companies' record high is fueled by a wave of analyst upgrades and strategic retail expansion. UBS and Deutsche Bank have both raised price targets, with Deutsche Bank setting a $184 level, while Bernstein and Wells Fargo also express confidence in TJX's earnings potential. The company's recent announcement of a new T.J. Maxx store in Lincoln Park, Chicago, underscores its aggressive expansion strategy. Additionally, TJX's strong financials—4.53% revenue growth, 13.33% dividend growth, and a 34.76 P/E ratio trading above fair value—reinforce investor optimism. Analysts highlight TJX's ability to outperform department store rivals through its off-price model, which remains resilient amid economic uncertainty.

Consumer Cyclical Sector Gains Momentum as ROST Trails TJX's Rally
The Consumer Cyclical sector, led by Ross Stores (ROST) with a 1.61% intraday gain, has seen broad-based strength. However, TJX's 2.45% rally outpaces ROST and peers like Burlington Stores (BURL), reflecting its stronger market position. TJX's off-price model, which leverages excess inventory and competitive pricing, has proven more adaptable to shifting consumer behavior than traditional retail formats. While the sector benefits from post-pandemic spending, TJX's strategic expansion and analyst upgrades position it as a standout performer.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on TJX's Bullish Momentum
• 200-day average: 135.84 (well below current price)
• RSI: 45.06 (neutral, not overbought)
• MACD: 0.98 (bullish divergence from signal line 1.59)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 157.82 near upper band (157.68), suggesting overbought conditions

TJX's technicals indicate a strong short-term bullish bias, with key support at 153.42 and resistance at the 52-week high of 158.24. The stock's 35.32 P/E ratio and 34.76 fair value premium suggest further upside potential, particularly if the Lincoln Park expansion and analyst-driven optimism persist. While no leveraged ETFs are available, options offer high-leverage opportunities.

Top Option 1: TJX20260116C150
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $150
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV: 33.80% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 20.03%
• Delta: 0.8407 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.5267 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0289 (high sensitivity to price changes)
• Turnover: 24,421
This call option offers a high delta and gamma, ideal for capitalizing on a breakout above $158.24. A 5% upside to $165.71 would yield a payoff of $5.71 per contract, with leverage amplifying returns.

Top Option 2: TJX20260116C157.5
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $157.50
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV: 18.15% (low)
• Leverage Ratio: 78.13%
• Delta: 0.5445 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.3836 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0881 (very high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 12,166
This option balances leverage and liquidity, with a 78% leverage ratio. A 5% move to $165.71 would generate a $8.21 payoff, making it ideal for aggressive bulls.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider TJX20260116C157.5 into a breakout above $158.24, while conservative traders can use TJX20260116C150 for a safer entry.

Backtest The Tjx Stock Performance
The 2% intraday surge in TJX's stock price from 2022 to now has had a positive impact on the company's performance. Here's a backtest of TJX's performance following the surge:1. Earnings Performance: TJX reported quarterly earnings of $0.86 per share, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $0.80. This indicates that the company has outperformed expectations, which could be attributed in part to the intraday surge in its stock price.2. Revenue Performance: TJX reported quarterly sales of $12.17 billion, which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $12.30 billion by 1%. Despite this slight miss, the company's sales figures represent a 3% decrease over sales in the same period last year, which is a notable achievement considering the challenging retail environment.3. Stock Price Reaction: Following the earnings release, TJX shares were trading near session highs, up by 4.96% to $78.98. This suggests that the market responded positively to the company's performance, which could be related to the intraday surge in the stock price.4. Dividend Yield: TJX had declared a quarterly dividend of $0.26 in December, which provides an additional return for investors and could have contributed to the stock's performance following the surge.In conclusion, the 2% intraday surge in TJX's stock price from 2022 to now has likely had a positive effect on the company's performance, as evidenced by its earnings beat, relatively stable revenue, positive stock price reaction, and dividend yield. However, it's important to note that the company's performance should be evaluated in the broader context of the retail industry and other relevant market factors.

Position for a Breakout: TJX's Rally Shows No Signs of Slowing
TJX's rally to a record high is underpinned by analyst upgrades, retail expansion, and strong financial fundamentals. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and key technical indicators aligned, the momentum appears sustainable. Investors should monitor the 158.24 level for a potential breakout, which could trigger a retest of the 184 Deutsche Bank target. Meanwhile, Ross Stores (ROST) remains a sector laggard, gaining 1.61%—a reminder of TJX's superior positioning. For those seeking leverage, the TJX20260116C157.5 option offers a high-reward path if the stock continues its ascent.