Threshold/USDC Market Overview (TUSDC) - 2025-11-07

Summary• TUSDC closed higher at $0.01201, up from $0.0118 at 12:00 ET-1.• Price surged past $0.012, with key resistance near $0.0123 and support at $0.01195.• Volatility spiked during the 16:00–17:00 ET window with volume exceeding 40,000.

The Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) pair opened at $0.0118 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET and surged through a 24-hour high of $0.01283 before closing at $0.01201 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET. The low for the period was $0.01173. Total volume over the 24-hour window amounted to 404,905.0, while notional turnover reached $5,278.07. The price action reflects a consolidation phase following a strong upward thrust, with bearish pressure resurfacing in the last hours.

Structure & Formations

TUSDC formed a bullish flag pattern between 16:30 and 17:00 ET, with price breaking above the upper trendline at $0.01271. A key support level appears to be forming at $0.01195, with a recent rejection observed on November 7 at that level. A bearish engulfing pattern was noted around 16:30 ET, signaling potential exhaustion in the upward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above the price during the 16:00–17:00 ET window, suggesting a short-term bullish trend. For the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA lines are aligned to the upside, indicating a broader uptrend remains intact.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed into positive territory after 16:00 ET, aligning with the bullish price breakout. RSI climbed above 60 but did not enter overbought territory during the 24-hour window, suggesting moderate momentum without extreme overbought conditions. A divergence between price and RSI in the final hour could signal a potential reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Price touched the upper Bollinger Band during the late morning and afternoon, confirming a period of high volatility. A contraction was observed between 16:00 and 16:30 ET, followed by a sharp expansion, hinting at a breakout scenario. Currently, the price resides near the midline, suggesting a possible consolidation phase ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 16:00–17:00 ET period, with more than 77,737 units traded, signaling strong conviction in the price action. However, notional turnover did not rise proportionally, suggesting that the move may not be fully confirmed by larger orders. A divergence between rising price and flat turnover raises caution about sustainability.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace level at $0.01215 and the 61.8% level at $0.01236 acted as temporary resistance. For the daily timeframe, a 61.8% retracement of the recent swing from $0.01173 to $0.01283 lies at $0.01258, suggesting a potential near-term ceiling for the pair.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong RSI and MACD signals observed in the 24-hour data, a backtest based on RSI-14 overbought thresholds could provide valuable insight. However, to execute this properly, a valid and tradeable ticker with consistent historical price data is required. TUSDC appears to have sufficient price action for a short-term momentum-based strategy, but for accurate RSI-14 calculation from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-07, a confirmed pair such as "USDC-USDT" on a major exchange (e.g., Binance) is needed. Once the correct symbol is identified, the strategy can be implemented: using RSI-14 to enter overbought positions (RSI > 70) and exit when RSI falls below 70. This approach can be tested to evaluate its effectiveness over the specified timeframe and adjusted if necessary.