Threshold/USDC Market Overview: Steady Rally into Early New York Session

• Threshold/USDC traded in a narrow range during early hours before rallying sharply in the overnight session.
• Price found key support at 0.01525, rebounding with increased volume into the early New York session.
• Volatility expanded overnight as price rose above 0.01550, reaching a 24-hour high of 0.01563.
• No clear bearish reversal patterns formed during the decline, suggesting buyers controlled the move higher.
• Momentum indicators suggest a potential pause in upward momentum, with RSI approaching overbought territory.

Market Overview

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at 0.01532 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01556 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. The pair reached a high of 0.01563 and a low of 0.01523 over the 24-hour period. The total volume traded was 32,943,324.9 units, and the notional turnover amounted to approximately $509,100 based on average price.

The price action suggests a consolidation phase followed by a breakout above key resistance levels. The overnight session saw a steady accumulation of bullish momentum, especially from 2:00 AM to 5:00 AM ET, where volume and price rose in tandem.

Structure & Formations

Threshold/USDC found strong support at 0.01525 during the early New York session, forming a base from which buyers pushed price higher. A key 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern appeared at 0.01541 on 2025-09-23 at 02:15 AM ET, signaling a short-term reversal. A larger bullish pattern followed later in the session, confirming the strength of the rebound. Notable resistance emerged at 0.01563, where price approached and stalled before consolidating slightly. No major bearish patterns emerged during the 24-hour period, indicating buyer control.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price during the early part of the session, indicating bearish momentum. However, by the early New York session, the 20-period MA had crossed back above the 50-period MA, forming a potential golden cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has been trending upward for several sessions, while the 200-period MA continues to act as a key support level around 0.01530–0.01535.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive during the overnight session, with the histogram showing increasing bullish momentum as buyers pushed the price above 0.01550. The RSI moved into overbought territory around 0.68–0.70, suggesting short-term exhaustion. However, buyers continued to push price higher, indicating that the rally may have legs. A potential divergence between RSI and price was observed around 0.01556, which may signal a short-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly overnight as price moved above the upper Bollinger Band on multiple 15-minute candles. The bands widened during the 2:00–4:00 AM ET period, indicating increased market participation and bullish sentiment. Price has remained above the moving average for most of the last four hours, suggesting continued buyer dominance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the overnight session, especially from 2:00 AM to 5:00 AM ET, where the largest trades occurred. The highest turnover spike was observed at 0.01541, with a volume of 663,044.8 units. Despite the price increase, volume remained steady during the consolidation phase after the high of 0.01563, suggesting limited short-term conviction from new buyers. A divergence between price and volume was observed at 0.01563, indicating a possible near-term stall.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute move from 0.01523 to 0.01563, key levels to watch include 38.2% at 0.01537 and 61.8% at 0.01550. Price tested 0.01550 during the early morning hours and moved beyond it, confirming the strength of the rally. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the prior downward move remains at 0.01535, which may act as a key level for further support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bullish engulfing pattern and a breakout above 0.01550, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering a long position on a close above 0.01550 with a stop loss placed below the 0.01525 support level. A take-profit could be placed at 0.01563, the 24-hour high, or at the next Fibonacci level at 0.01573. This setup leverages the technical confirmation of trend continuation and strong volume support, aligning with the observed increase in momentum and price above key moving averages. A trailing stop could be applied once the price moves beyond the initial take-profit level, aiming to capture further upside while managing downside risk.