Threshold/USDC Market Overview

• Threshold/USDC traded in a narrow range most of the day before surging above 0.0153 in late ET hours.
• A key breakout above 0.01532 was followed by consolidation, with bearish divergence in RSI hinting at potential pullback.
• Volatility expanded in the early morning, peaking at 0.01556 before retreating toward 0.0151, signaling mixed sentiment.
• Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion post-03:45 ET, followed by a contraction in the afternoon, indicating a shift toward consolidation.
• Volume spiked during the overnight rally but has since cooled, suggesting momentum may be waning.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09, Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at 0.01502, reached a high of 0.01558, a low of 0.01495, and closed at 0.01511. The 24-hour volume totaled 1,158,911.2 USDC, with notional turnover of $17,467.50. The price exhibited a sharp overnight rally, followed by a retracement in the morning and afternoon.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a key resistance cluster forming between 0.0153 and 0.0154, with a breakout above 0.01532 occurring late in the previous night. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 0.01546, signaling a reversal in momentum. A doji formed around 0.0153 during the morning, hinting at indecision between buyers and sellers. A key support level appears to be forming at 0.0151, where the price has tested and bounced multiple times in the afternoon.

Moving Averages & Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA sits slightly above the 50-period MA, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. The 50-period MA crossed above the 100-period MA early in the morning, forming a potential golden cross. However, the RSI, which hit 65 in the overnight session, has since cooled to 52, indicating easing momentum. The MACD histogram has turned negative in recent hours, reinforcing bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion from 03:45 to 05:00 ET, during which the price moved from 0.0153 to 0.01558. The bands have since contracted, with the price sitting near the middle band as of the latest close. This suggests a potential consolidation phase. The morning session saw a contraction in volatility, followed by a brief re-expansion during a pullback toward 0.0151.

Volume & Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked overnight during the breakout from 0.0153 to 0.01558, with several candles recording over 130,000 USDC in turnover. However, volume has since declined, with most recent candles showing under 20,000 USDC traded. Notional turnover has also dropped, indicating reduced conviction in the current trend. A bearish divergence appears in the volume profile — as the price retreated in the afternoon, volume remained low, suggesting weak follow-through.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the overnight rally (0.0153–0.01558) show the current price near the 38.2% level (~0.01545). A pullback to 0.01527 (61.8% level) could signal a potential bottom or trigger further selling. On the daily chart, the retracement from the 0.01558 high to the 0.01495 low shows a potential key level at 0.01516, which has acted as support and resistance multiple times.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for TUSDC involves entering long positions on a breakout above 0.01532 with a stop-loss just below the previous swing low at 0.01516. A take-profit target of 0.01546 aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci level and the upper Bollinger Band. The MACD crossover and RSI divergence could be used to confirm the exit signal. Over the past 24 hours, this setup would have captured the overnight rally but faced a quick reversal, indicating that volume and follow-through may be key for future entries.

Looking ahead, TUSDC may continue to test the 0.0151–0.0153 range for consolidation. A retest of 0.01532 could trigger renewed buying, but a break below 0.0151 may open the door to further declines. Investors should remain cautious of low volume and bearish divergence in RSI, which may signal a shift in sentiment.