Threshold/USDC Market Overview – 24-Hour Technical Summary

Summary• Threshold/USDC traded in a tight range with a key breakout attempt in late-night hours.
• RSI and MACD suggest momentum is fading with potential for consolidation ahead.
• Volume surged in overnight sessions, but price failed to confirm a bullish break.
• Price action shows signs of short-term indecision with no clear directional bias.
• Bollinger Bands indicate low volatility in the morning with a sharp expansion post-01:00 ET.

Market Movement and Structure

Threshold/USDC opened at $0.01186 (12:00 ET–1) and closed at $0.01188 (12:00 ET) after reaching an intraday high of $0.01209 and a low of $0.01164 over the 24-hour period. The total traded volume was 1,175,744.5 units, with a notional turnover of $14,077.43 (calculated from price * volume). The price action formed multiple indecisive patterns including a long-legged doji at $0.01209 and a bearish harami around $0.01194–$0.01195. Notable resistance levels emerged at $0.01209 and $0.01205, while key support appeared at $0.01185 and $0.01164. A bullish engulfing pattern at $0.01190–$0.01205 showed brief momentum, but failed to hold.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a clear contraction during the early hours, with price staying within a narrow band. However, after 01:00 ET, the bands widened significantly as volatility increased. At the close, price was near the lower band at $0.01188, suggesting a potential oversold condition and a possibility of a bounce back toward the mid-band.

Moving Averages and Fibonacci Retracements

Using a 20 and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, price hovered slightly below the 50-period MA, indicating a weak short-term trend. The 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the late-night session, suggesting a possible bullish crossover. Fibonacci retracement levels highlighted key psychological levels at 0.01205 (61.8%), 0.01201 (50%), and 0.01196 (38.2%), with the price retreating from the 61.8% level in the final hours.

Momentum and Indicators

The RSI dipped below 30 in the late-night session and remained in oversold territory into the morning, indicating potential support at $0.01185–$0.01188. The MACD showed a bearish crossover during the early morning, but a subsequent bullish crossover after 04:30 ET hinted at short-term accumulation. However, the histogram remained flat after 07:00 ET, signaling weakening momentum.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked at key price levels, notably at $0.01209, $0.01194, and $0.01185, where price found resistance and support. The most notable spike occurred at $0.01209, with over 100,000 units traded during the 1–3 AM ET window. However, the failure to break above $0.01209 despite the volume suggests bearish conviction. Notional turnover also spiked during these sessions, confirming the importance of these levels. A divergence between volume and price during the morning dip to $0.01164 indicates potential buying interest that may trigger a short-term rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

To further validate the observed patterns and signals, a backtesting strategy based on bullish and bearish engulfing patterns could be employed. These candlestick formations occurred frequently during the 24-hour period, notably at $0.01209 and $0.01194. A backtest from January 2022 to today could determine the profitability of entering a position at the open of the engulfing candle and holding for 24 hours. Initial signs suggest that such patterns may offer a medium-risk, low-bias entry, but confirmation is needed with actual performance data. Please provide the correct ticker symbol or exchange for the TUSDC asset to proceed with the backtesting component.