Threshold/USDC Market Overview: 24-Hour Price Action, Volatility, and Momentum

• Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) traded in a tight range for most of the 24 hours, with price fluctuating between 0.01621 and 0.01676.
• A sharp drop occurred late in the session, closing near support at 0.01646 after a bearish reversal pattern.
• Volume spiked in the early morning hours but remained low during the final push lower, indicating weak conviction.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish momentum, with no signs of immediate oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands constricted earlier in the session before a sudden expansion, signaling potential for a breakout or breakdown.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at 0.01674 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01646 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. During the 24-hour period, the price reached a high of 0.01676 and a low of 0.01618. Total trading volume was 388,398.5, while notional turnover amounted to 6.45.

The price action over the last 24 hours was characterized by a bearish bias, particularly in the latter half of the session. After a consolidation phase early in the morning, the price broke below a key support level at 0.01656, leading to a sharp decline. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 2025-09-21 02:30 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. The price then found short-term support at 0.01621, where it briefly consolidated before testing the level again.

Structure & Formations

The key resistance levels over the past 24 hours were at 0.01676 and 0.01669, both of which were tested multiple times without a strong rebound. On the support side, 0.01646 and 0.01621 were critical, with the price showing weakness after breaking below 0.01656. A doji formed near 0.01659, signaling indecision among traders. The bearish engulfing pattern at 0.01656 was followed by a breakdown that reached 0.01621, indicating strong downward momentum.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicated a bearish crossover, with price falling below both indicators in the final hours. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sat at approximately 0.01663, while the 200-period MA was at 0.0167, both above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 100-period MA also showed downward pressure, with the price failing to hold above it during the decline.

MACD & RSI

The MACD moved below the signal line in the final hours, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram showed a clear contraction and then expansion as the price broke down. RSI declined from 58 to 49 over the 24 hours, suggesting a moderate bearish trend but not yet reaching oversold territory. This suggests that further downward movement could be supported by additional bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands constricted between 0.01656 and 0.01669 for much of the morning, indicating a period of low volatility and consolidation. After the price broke below 0.01656, the bands expanded significantly, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward move. The current close of 0.01646 sits near the lower band, which may act as temporary support or signal a breakdown in volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume surged in the early morning hours, reaching a peak of 84,322 at 0.01662 before declining again. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with a spike during the breakdown from 0.01656. However, during the final leg of the decline, volume was relatively low, suggesting weak conviction in the move. This divergence may indicate a potential reversal or pause in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing high at 0.01676 and low at 0.01618, key levels were identified at 0.01652 (38.2%) and 0.01637 (61.8%). The price broke below 0.01656 earlier in the session, confirming the 61.8% level as a target. The 61.8% level at 0.01637 was then tested but not held, with the price falling further to 0.01621.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves entering short positions upon the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern below a key support level, with a stop-loss placed above the recent high and a take-profit target set at the next Fibonacci retracement level. Given the formation at 0.01656 and the subsequent breakdown, this approach could have captured the decline to 0.01621. The low volume during the final leg, however, introduces risk that the move may lack continuation.