Threshold/USD Coin Market Overview

• Price surged from 0.01565 to 0.01604, closing near 0.01602 after forming a bullish continuation pattern.
• Strong volume spikes emerged in the 4–6 AM and 1–4 PM ET cycles, suggesting accumulation and breakout attempts.
• RSI hit overbought levels above 70 late morning, indicating possible short-term profit-taking.
• Bollinger Band contraction in the pre-dawn hours preceded a sharp price expansion.
• Turnover exceeded $150k at peak, with TUSDC showing increased notional activity in late trading hours.

Threshold/USD Coin (TUSDC) opened at 0.01565 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01602 on 2025-09-05 at the same time. The 24-hour high was 0.01619, and the low was 0.01555. Total volume reached 608,879.4 units, and total turnover was $9,784.17. The market displayed a clear upward bias with rising volume in the final hours of the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern revealed a strong bullish breakout from a consolidation range between 0.01565 and 0.01575. A large bullish candle formed between 04:15 and 04:30 ET, signaling a potential reversal. A minor bearish divergence occurred at 14:45 ET, where price declined but volume remained muted. A doji near 0.0159 at 06:15 ET suggested indecision before the final rally. Key support levels appear to be at 0.01576 and 0.01565, while resistance is now at 0.01604 and 0.01619.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum appears to have broken above the 20-period (15 min) moving average, currently at 0.01586, with the 50-period (15 min) at 0.01592. The price closed above both, indicating bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period is at 0.01585, and the 200-period is at 0.01573, suggesting the asset is in a bullish phase. The 100-period (daily) is currently at 0.01579, reinforcing the upward bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a strong positive crossover in the early hours of 09-05, with the line above zero and the histogram expanding. The RSI reached overbought territory around 0.01602 at 08:00 ET, suggesting short-term resistance. A pullback could be expected as RSI reverts toward 60–65. However, the sustained buying pressure suggests further momentum is possible in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted sharply in the early morning hours before the price surged out of the band in a breakout pattern. The price currently sits just above the upper band, indicating a high volatility regime. A retest of the upper band could be expected, but the current expansion of the bands suggests that volatility may persist for at least the next 4–6 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly in two major spikes: one between 04:15 and 04:45 ET, and another between 09:30 and 10:30 ET. These spikes coincided with price surges and were confirmed by turnover. The final candle before the 24-hour close recorded a high turnover of $600 at 16:00 ET. No major divergences were observed, suggesting strong alignment between price and volume action.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 0.01555–0.01619 swing, key levels are at 0.01592 (38.2%) and 0.01579 (61.8%). The price briefly tested the 61.8% level at 14:45 ET but bounced sharply. A retest of 0.01592 may occur in the next 24 hours, with the 0.01619 level now acting as a potential psychological ceiling.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on detecting breakout patterns using the 20-period moving average and confirming them with volume spikes above average. A long entry could be triggered when price closes above the 20-period MA and volume exceeds 5,000 units for three consecutive 15-minute candles. A stop loss could be placed just below the recent support at 0.01576, with a target at 0.01619. This strategy would benefit from the current bullish momentum and could be optimized for volatility by incorporating Bollinger Band expansion as a filter. Given the recent overbought RSI levels, a profit target at 0.01604 or 0.01619 with a trailing stop at 0.01595 may offer a balanced risk-reward profile.