THETA-TRY Market Overview for 2025-10-09

• THENA/Turkish Lira declined sharply over the last 24 hours, closing at 17.501, a -13.8% drop from the open.
• Key support tested at 17.3–17.50 range, with bearish momentum visible in RSI and MACD divergence.
• Volatility spiked mid-night with a 15-minute candle breaking below 18.00, indicating increased bear pressure.
• Volume surged during the sell-off, confirming the downward move, but notional turnover did not match, hinting at possible retail participation.
• 20-period moving average on 15-min chart remains bearish, while 50-period line turned neutral after 05:00 ET.

THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 20.118 on October 8 at 12:00 ET and closed at 17.501 the following day. The pair hit a high of 20.457 and a low of 17.291, reflecting a significant bearish trend. Total volume over the 24-hour period reached 1,887,240.0 units, while turnover amounted to $34,494,000 (based on Turkish Lira equivalent).

The price action over the past 24 hours has shown a sharp breakdown from key resistance levels between 19.40 and 19.60. A critical bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart around 02:30 ET, with the close at 19.014 following an open of 19.414. This pattern coincided with a surge in volume and marked a turning point in sentiment. Subsequently, a series of bearish confirmation candles formed, including a long lower shadow and a narrow-bodied close, reinforcing the downward bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages remain in a bearish alignment, suggesting continued pressure unless a strong reversal occurs.

Bollinger Bands illustrate a recent expansion in volatility, especially during the early morning hours, as the price moved well below the lower band by 04:00 ET. This expansion suggests increased uncertainty and heightened trading activity. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are now both below the price, further supporting a bearish bias. RSI has entered oversold territory, indicating potential for a short-term bounce, but divergence between RSI and price suggests that this may not translate into a full reversal. The MACD line has crossed below the signal line and remains in negative territory, signaling bearish momentum.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the most recent swing high at 20.457 to the swing low at 17.291 show key levels at 38.2% (18.87) and 61.8% (17.65). The current close at 17.501 is near the 61.8% level, suggesting a possible pause in the decline. The price appears to be consolidating near this level, and a break below it could signal further deterioration in sentiment. In the near term, 17.65 and 17.50 represent critical supports to watch.

Looking ahead, the market may test the 17.3–17.45 support cluster with potential for a short-term rebound if a bullish reversal pattern forms. However, a break below 17.291 could accelerate the decline toward 17.00 and beyond. Investors should remain cautious of potential volatility, particularly given the high volume during the sell-off and the RSI divergence suggesting possible exhaustion of bearish momentum. A strong reversal above 18.00 could trigger a retest of the 18.20–18.40 range, but this remains a distant target.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves identifying a bearish engulfing pattern during high-volume periods, followed by a stop-loss placed just above the 15-minute high of the engulfing candle. A profit target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the recent swing high. The strategy appears well-aligned with the recent price action, particularly the 02:30 ET engulfing candle that coincided with a surge in volume and a clear breakdown in sentiment. The 15-minute MACD and RSI divergence further justify the timing of such a trade. If tested on this dataset, the strategy would have generated a short signal with a well-defined exit target near 17.65, a level the price has already reached. A tighter stop above 19.414 would have limited risk while allowing for meaningful downside potential.