THENA/Turkish Lira Market Overview

• THENA/Turkish Lira surged to 19.112, up 7.8% in 24 hours, driven by a bullish breakout after a long consolidation phase.
• Strong volume and turnover confirmed the breakout with no clear bearish divergence observed.
• Key resistance at 19.112 was breached, and the next target is 19.631; support lies near 18.607.
• RSI and MACD showed strong momentum, suggesting further upside potential but not overbought conditions.
• Volatility expanded during the breakout phase, as seen by Bollinger Band widening and high volume.

The THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) pair opened at 17.297 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and surged to an intraday high of 19.112 by 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET, closing at 19.112. The 24-hour volume was 4,949,427.5, with a total notional turnover of 88,183,083 Turkish Lira, reflecting strong buying interest and bullish sentiment.

The 15-minute chart shows a clear bullish breakout after a tight consolidation phase between 17.606 and 18.789. The price formed a series of higher highs and higher lows, with a strong engulfing pattern at 19.0–19.112. Key support levels include 18.607, 18.44, and 18.269, while resistance levels are 19.112, 19.353, and 19.631. The 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart crossed above the 20-period EMA, confirming a shift into bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period EMAs are converging, hinting at a potential long-term trend reversal.

Momentum indicators support the bullish narrative. The MACD crossed above zero and showed increasing positive divergence, suggesting sustained upward momentum. The RSI climbed to 68 by the end of the 24-hour window, indicating strong bullish momentum but not yet overbought territory. Bollinger Bands expanded during the breakout, with the price hovering near the upper band, signaling increased volatility and bullish continuation potential.

The volume profile supports the price action. Notional turnover spiked during the breakout phase, particularly in the 21:00–22:00 ET window, when the price rose from 18.711 to 18.954. This surge was confirmed by strong volume and no divergence in price/volume dynamics. A notable volume contraction occurred after 01:00 ET, signaling a pause in aggressive buying, but the price remained above the 15-minute 50-EMA, suggesting buyers remain in control.

Fibonacci retracement levels for the 15-minute swing from 17.294 to 19.112 show 18.607 at 38.2% and 18.911 at 61.8%. The 61.8% level coincided with a pause in the upward trend before a final push to the high of the day. On the daily chart, the recent swing from 18.204 to 19.631 has a 19.295 at 38.2% and a 19.476 at 61.8%. These levels may serve as potential targets or resistance in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtesting strategy could involve a long entry on a bullish engulfing pattern at the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a close above the 50-period EMA and an RSI above 50. A stop-loss could be placed below the 38.2% Fibonacci level (18.607), with a take-profit target at the 61.8% level (18.911) and an aggressive target at 19.112. Given the strong volume confirmation and lack of bearish divergence, this setup could offer a favorable risk-reward profile for short-term traders.