THENA/Turkish Lira Market Overview

• Price dropped 6.7% from $15.187 to $14.238 within 24 hours on heavy volume.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 15.228–15.197 before the major breakdown.
• RSI hit 28 (oversold) and MACD turned negative, signaling bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded as price broke below the Bollinger Band lower limit.
• Turnover spiked during the last 3 hours, suggesting significant liquidation.

The price of THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at $15.187 on 2025-09-13 12:00 ET and fell to $14.238 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-14, with a high of $15.306 and a low of $14.201. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 266,218.9 units, and the estimated turnover is substantial due to large price swings.

Structure & Formations

The daily chart shows a clear bearish structure forming, with price breaking below key support at $15.00 and confirming a breakdown with a bearish engulfing pattern around $15.228. A doji formed near $14.75, indicating indecision after the sharp decline. The price is now resting near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior bullish swing from $14.201 to $15.306. If this level fails, the next downside target would be $14.00.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, forming a death cross and confirming bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is well above the 200-period MA, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend. The price has been trending below both the 50 and 100-period MAs for the last four days, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative during the breakdown and remains below its signal line, with a bearish histogram. RSI is at 28 on the 15-minute chart, indicating oversold conditions, but this is not a guarantee of a bounce without a clear reversal pattern. The RSI divergence from volume suggests that while the price is oversold, the buying pressure is weak, increasing the likelihood of a continuation of the bearish move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly, with the Bollinger Bands widening over the past 6 hours. Price closed below the lower band at $14.238, a bearish signal that suggests continuation of the downtrend. The contraction prior to the breakdown at $15.197 was a warning sign of an impending move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown, with a sharp increase in trading activity below $15.00. The final 3-hour period saw the largest volume spike (42,729.9 units), coinciding with a price drop from $14.601 to $14.54 and then down to $14.36. Turnover also spiked during this period, indicating aggressive selling. A divergence between price and volume has not been observed, suggesting the breakdown is genuine and not a false signal.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price has dropped to the 61.8% level of the last bullish swing. This is a critical level for near-term support. A close below this level would likely push the price toward the next key support at $14.00. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the 2025-08-14 high at $16.25 is at $14.00, aligning with the short-term Fibonacci level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position when price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level with confirmation from a bearish engulfing pattern and a negative MACD crossover. Stop-loss could be placed above the nearest resistance at $14.75. A target of $14.00 would offer a favorable risk-reward ratio. This strategy aligns with the current price structure and volatility expansion, making it a viable setup for testing historical performance in similar market conditions.