Texas Pacific Land Stock Plunges 15% As Bearish Signals Dominate Technical Charts

Candlestick Theory
Texas Pacific Land's recent price action exhibits significant bearish signals. The most recent session closed at $945.89, forming a bearish engulfing pattern after testing the $979 resistance. This follows a hammer candle on October 1st ($957.98 close) that failed to sustain momentum, indicating rejection near $980. Key support emerges at $920–$925 (September 29 low and September 26 consolidation zone), while resistance solidifies at $980–$990, validated by multiple failed breakout attempts in early October and September. The extended upper wick on October 3rd ($979.99 high vs. $945.89 close) underscores persistent selling pressure at higher levels.
Moving Average Theory
The stock trades below all critical moving averages, confirming a bearish trend structure. The 50-day MA (approx. $1,035) crossed below the 100-day MA (approx. $1,110) in mid-September, triggering a "death cross" signal. The 200-day MA (approx. $1,175) now caps rallies, with October’s price rejection near $980 occurring precisely below this long-term indicator. This alignment suggests entrenched downward momentum, with any rebound likely facing staunch resistance near the clustering of these MAs.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a sustained bearish stance, with the histogram deepening negative territory since mid-September and the signal line diverging further below zero. However, KDJ flashes an oversold signal (K: 18.3, D: 22.7) on daily charts, hinting at potential short-term exhaustion. Critically, a bearish divergence emerged in late September: price established lower highs, while KDJ’s peak failed to exceed prior highs. This misalignment suggests underlying weakness even during technical rebounds.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contraction is evident, with bands narrowing to a 6-week low (upper band: $990, lower band: $910). Price currently hugs the lower band after piercing it on October 3rd, typically signaling oversold conditions. However, the absence of a sharp reversal candle or volume surge reduces confidence in immediate recovery. A decisive close below $910 would trigger a volatility expansion, potentially accelerating losses toward $870.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution patterns dominate: high-volume declines (e.g., September 19: -4.18% on 426k shares; August 7: -8.75% on 300k shares) contrast with low-volume rallies (e.g., October 2: +1.02% on 122k shares). Recent sessions show moderately elevated volume during sell-offs (October 3: 115k shares), suggesting persistent selling pressure. The lack of accumulation volume near supports undermines rebound sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Daily RSI reads 37.51, hovering near oversold territory (<30) but not yet extreme. Notably, it has consistently failed to breach 55 during September relief rallies, confirming bearish momentum strength. A bearish divergence aligns with KDJ: RSI’s lower high on September 23–24 (price peak $931–935) versus late August’s higher high (price $942). This reinforces the MACD’s warning of weakening upward momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the July peak ($1,730) and October 3 low ($945.89), key retracement levels emerge: 23.6% ($1,047), 38.2% ($1,150), and 61.8% ($1,340). Resistance at the 23.6% level ($1,047) aligns perfectly with the July–August breakdown zone and the 50-day MA, creating a high-probability reversal area. The stock’s repeated failure to reclaim the 61.8% level ($1,340) since August confirms this as critical trend-defining resistance.
Confluence and Divergence Synthesis
Confluence of bearish signals dominates: moving average alignment, MACD trajectory, and volume distribution confirm structural weakness. The lone counterpoint is KDJ’s oversold reading, which lacks confirmation from RSI or volume. Critical divergence exists between price’s lower highs (September–October) and oscillators’ (KDJ/RSI) failure to reach prior highs, suggesting exhaustion in buying attempts. Immediate bias remains downward, targeting $910–$920 support. A sustained break below $910 would expose the 2025 low of $870. For reversal prospects, a close above $980 with >150k volume is required to invalidate the bearish structure.