Texas Pacific Land Rises 0.21% After Testing Key $860 Support Amid Volatility

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) edged up 0.21% in the most recent session, closing at $876.96 after testing support near $860 amid continued volatility. This muted recovery follows a sharp 4.18% decline, suggesting ongoing consolidation within a broader technical landscape. Below is a comprehensive assessment integrating multiple analytical frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns highlight pivotal support and resistance zones. The September 22 session formed a hammer-like pattern with a long lower wick ($860.03 low) and close near the high ($876.96), signaling rejection of lower prices after the preceding bearish engulfing candle on September 19. Key resistance is established near $930-$955 (September 12-17 highs), while $860 now emerges as critical short-term support. A sustained break below $860 may trigger further downside toward the August swing low of $845.56.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day and 100-day moving averages remain in bearish configuration, with the price trading below both levels. The 200-day moving average hovers near $1,100, underscoring the persistent long-term downtrend from the 2024 peak. Recent bounces have consistently failed at the 50-day MA (approximated at $915-$920), reinforcing its resistance role. Until TPL reclaims the 50-day MA, the trend bias leans bearish, though oversold conditions may prompt tactical rebounds.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows waning bearish momentum as it approaches the zero line from below, hinting at potential stabilization after the September sell-off. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator exited oversold territory (sub-30) on September 22, with the %K line crossing above %D. This bullish crossover aligns with the hammer candlestick, suggesting near-term upside potential. However, both indicators remain below neutral midpoints, warranting caution against premature trend-reversal calls.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded during the September downturn, with the price testing the lower Bollinger Band near $860. The bands are still relatively wide (standard deviation ~$40), reflecting elevated near-term risk. The rejection from the lower band and subsequent close toward the middle band ($875-$880) support a short-term consolidation phase. A sustained move above the 20-period middle band would signal regained momentum, while another test of the lower band could accelerate selling.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume trends reveal distribution signals. The September 19 sell-off occurred on high volume (426k shares), confirming bearish conviction. Conversely, the September 22 rebound registered lower volume (153k shares), questioning sustainability. Recent rallies toward $930-$955 (September 12-18) similarly lacked volume expansion, invalidating breakout attempts. Volume must notably increase on upside moves to validate any recovery.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI recently dipped to 32, briefly entering oversold territory but rebounding to 45 by September 22. While this recovery alleviates immediate oversold pressure, RSI remains below the neutral 50 level, consistent with the intermediate downtrend. Historically, TPL has required multiple oversold RSI tests before significant reversals (e.g., August near $845). Current RSI readings suggest bearish control persists but warrant monitoring for positive divergence.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing high of $955.99 (September 12) and swing low of $860.03 (September 22) yields critical retracement thresholds: 23.6% ($882.60), 38.2% ($896.95), and 50% ($908.01). The September 22 high ($886.20) stalled near the 23.6% level, establishing immediate resistance. A close above $882.60 could catalyze a relief rally toward $897. Conversely, failure here maintains vulnerability to retest $860 support.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence exists between the $860 support (candlestick), Fibonacci swing low, and Bollinger Band, strengthening its technical significance. Similarly, the KDJ bullish crossover and MACD stabilization align with the RSI rebound, suggesting limited near-term downside. However, volume divergence persists, as all recent recovery attempts lacked accumulation signals. A decisive break above $885-$890 (Fibonacci 23.6% + middle Bollinger Band) on expanded volume is needed to confirm a tactical reversal. Absent this, TPL remains susceptible to range-bound volatility with a bearish trend bias.