Texas Pacific Land Rebounds 3.22% To $882.39 Amid Technical Recovery Signals

Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns for Texas Pacific Land indicate a tentative recovery following a sharp decline. The price action shows a hammer-like formation around the $845–$880 zone on August 13, closing near the session high ($882.39), suggesting potential bullish reversal sentiment. Key resistance is established at $950–$970, a level that halted advances in early August, while support is firm near $845, aligning with the August 13 low. A decisive break above $900 may signal short-term bullish momentum, though sustained trading below $845 could invalidate this structure and expose the $790–$810 support zone from mid-July.
Moving Average Theory
The moving averages reveal bearish crossovers signaling entrenched downtrend pressure. The 50-day SMA (currently near $1,100) crossed below the 100-day SMA (∼$1,170) in late July, followed by a death cross versus the 200-day SMA (∼$1,220) in early August. Prices remain below all three SMAs, confirming the primary downtrend. However, the recent close above the 5-day EMA ($863) hints at nascent short-term stabilization. For a trend reversal, sustained closes above the 50-day SMA would be necessary, which appears improbable without significant volume-backed catalysts.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) for Texas Pacific Land is marginally improving but remains bearish overall. The histogram shows diminishing negative momentum since early August, with the signal line (-22.8) attempting to converge toward the MACD line (-20.1). Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator (14,3,3) is rising from oversold territory—current readings are K:38.7, D:32.1, J:52.0—suggesting near-term upside potential. While MACD’s lagging profile advises caution, KDJ’s bullish crossover (K>D) aligns with recent price gains. Confluence exists in the momentum shift, but confirmation requires MACD crossing above its signal line.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contraction is evident, with Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2σ) narrowing to a 16% bandwidth (vs. 22% last month), reflecting reduced market uncertainty. Recent prices rebounded from the lower band ($831), climbing toward the midline ($890). The tight band squeeze implies an impending volatility expansion. A close above the midline could trigger a test of the upper band ($950), while failure to hold $831 risks revisiting the July low of $790. The current positioning favors a neutral-bias breakout within 2–3 sessions.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume trends validate recent price stabilization. The August 7 sell-off to $867 occurred on elevated volume (300,884 shares), confirming capitulation. Subsequent rallies on August 12–13 saw volumes increase by 28% versus the 10-day average, supporting the rebound’s legitimacy. Conversely, the early August resistance rejection at $950 saw volume fade, highlighting weak conviction. For continued recovery, volumes must sustain or exceed the 150,000/share threshold.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 42.1, rebounding from oversold territory (29.5 on August 7) but still below neutral. While the oversold dip preceded the current 3.22% two-day rally, RSI has not breached 50 since mid-July, underscoring persistent bearish momentum. Divergence emerged in early August as prices made lower lows while RSI formed higher lows, hinting at weakening downward pressure. However, a trend reversal requires RSI to break above 50, currently lacking confirmation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the dominant downtrend (May 30 high: $1,219 → July 22 low: $790) reveals key retracement hurdles. The 38.2% level ($948) capped recovery attempts in early August, aligning with horizontal resistance. The 50% retracement ($1,004) converges with the 200-day SMA, creating a formidable technical ceiling. Recent momentum targets the 23.6% level ($892), which coincides with Bollinger Band midline resistance. A breach above $892 opens a path toward $948–$955, while rejection here would reinforce bearish dominance.
Confluence and Divergence Synthesis
Multiple indicators align at $890–$900: the 23.6% Fibonacci, Bollinger midline, and 5-day EMA converge, making this a decisive short-term pivot. Bullish KDJ crossover, volume-backed rebound, and RSI divergence signal waning bearish momentum. However, bearish MA stacking and MACD’s negative territory advise caution. The critical divergence lies in price recovery versus the persistently negative MACD—a conflict that demands resolution via either a confirmed MACD crossover or renewed price weakness. Probabilistically, the confluence favors a test of $950 resistance if $900 is surpassed, though failure here may reactivate the primary downtrend toward $790 support.