Texas Pacific Land Falls 1.01% to $925.57 Amid Technical Resistance Battle

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) closed at $925.57 on 2025-09-25, down 1.01% for the session after testing resistance near $937. This decline follows a volatile 6.19% rally earlier in the week, highlighting ongoing technical tension between recent bearish momentum and emerging support levels.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions reveal key technical levels through price rejection patterns. Resistance is firmly established at $960.97 (2025-09-24’s high), where a long upper wick formed as prices reversed from intraday peaks to close near session lows. This bearish rejection pattern occurred above the critical $930-$937 resistance zone tested multiple times in September. Support emerges at $877-$880, validated by three successful tests in August/September 2025, most recently on 2025-09-23 when prices rebounded sharply from $877.80. The consolidation between these boundaries suggests a technical battleground.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average hierarchy confirms a sustained downtrend. The 50-day SMA (currently near $920) provided dynamic resistance during the September rebound, turning away prices on 2025-09-25. More significantly, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs maintain a bearish slope above $1,050, creating multiple layers of overhead resistance. Persistent trading below all three key averages signals entrenched bearish control. The 50-day’s position beneath the 100-day and 200-day averages solidifies the death cross configuration observed earlier this year.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows tentative bullish momentum, having recently crossed above its signal line from deeply negative territory. However, the MACD line’s position below zero indicates this remains a counter-trend bounce within a broader downtrend. The KDJ oscillator reflects overbought conditions being worked off, with the %K line retreating from above 80 after the September rally. While not yet oversold, the narrowing spread between %K and %D lines suggests weakening momentum, increasing vulnerability to pullbacks if the $920 support breaks.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Band width expanded significantly during August’s sell-off, reflecting volatility surge. The subsequent consolidation triggered a contraction phase, with the 20-day bands now tightening around the $890-$950 range. Recent price behavior reveals band-defined boundaries: the sharp rebound on 2025-09-23 originated near the lower band, while the rejection at $960 aligned with the upper band. This band resistance convergence with the horizontal $960 level strengthens its technical significance. Continued contraction below $930 would suggest diminishing volatility and potential directional indecision.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns validate recent price movements. The 6.19% rally on 2025-09-23 occurred on 219,449 shares – 68% above the 30-day average – confirming bullish conviction. However, the subsequent push to $960.97 on 2025-09-24 unfolded on below-average volume (130,910 shares), creating a bearish divergence that foreshadowed the following day’s retreat. This declining volume profile during ascent questions sustainability. Supportive volume is now needed to validate any move above $937.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (currently near 45) resides in neutral territory after rebounding from oversold conditions in late August. While the recovery from sub-30 levels sparked September’s rally, RSI’s failure to breach 60 during the upswing signals inadequate momentum for trend reversal. The indicator’s position below 50 still favors bears, though lack of overbought readings prevents immediate downside exhaustion warnings. Traders should monitor for bearish divergence if prices approach $960 again without corresponding RSI strength.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the primary 2024-2025 swing (low: $868.155 on 2024-09-26; high: $1,769.14 on 2024-11-25) reveals strategic levels. The 61.8% retracement at $1,212.33 served as resistance during July’s failed rebound. Current trading below the 78.6% level ($983.45) underscores bearish dominance, with the 100% retracement at $868.55 converging with major horizontal support at $870. This zone’s successful defense in August 2025 establishes it as a critical long-term pivot – a breach could trigger accelerated selling, while a hold may catalyze basing patterns. Between $868 and $983, minor Fibonacci reactions appear at $923 (76.4%) and $900 (85.4%), offering near-term reference points.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Confluence reinforces $868-$880 as a high-significance support zone, combining the Fibonacci 100% level, horizontal price support, and the August 2025 lows. Resistance confluences at $960 integrate the September swing high, Bollinger Band upper limit, and the 38.2% retracement of the recent $877-$960 rally. A notable bearish divergence emerged between price and volume during the September rebound: as prices climbed to new recovery highs, volume progressively diminished. This contrasts with the MACD’s bullish momentum shift, creating a technical tension that may resolve through a decisive break of the $900-$937 range. No significant oscillator-price divergence is presently detected, though continued consolidation near support would increase its development probability.