Texas Pacific Land Dips 2.23% to $1,036.28 Amid Bearish Technical Signals

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) fell by 2.23% in the most recent trading session, closing at $1,036.28 after ranging between $1,030.01 and $1,064.03. This decline occurred on moderate volume of 123,987 shares, below the 20-day average, suggesting diminished selling conviction despite the bearish close. The analysis below evaluates key technical indicators to contextualize this move within the broader trend.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show TPL testing critical support near $1,021–$1,030, established by the June 24 low ($1,021.37) and June 25 low ($1,030.01). The price rejection from the June 24 high ($1,069.36) and subsequent failure to hold gains formed a bearish resistance zone near $1,064–$1,070. A close below $1,021 would signal vulnerability to further downside, while a break above $1,070 may indicate short-term stabilization. The absence of reversal patterns (e.g., bullish engulfing) reinforces the current bearish bias.
Moving Average Theory
TPL trades below all key moving averages, confirming a sustained downtrend. The 50-day MA (∼$1,150), 100-day MA (∼$1,240), and 200-day MA (∼$1,300) exhibit bearish sequencing (50 < 100 < 200). The widening gap between price and these averages underscores strong downward momentum. A sustained reversal would require reclaiming the 50-day MA, which currently acts as dynamic resistance.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram resides in negative territory, though its slope has moderated, hinting at potential downside exhaustion. No bullish crossover is evident. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator shows an oversold signal: The %K line (14) and %D (24) are below 20, with the J-line at -2. While KDJ readings suggest oversold conditions, the absence of bullish divergences (e.g., higher lows in KDJ vs. lower price lows) tempers reversal expectations. Confluence with other indicators would strengthen a bullish case.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during the late-May to mid-June selloff, reflecting elevated volatility. Price currently hugs the lower band ($985–$1,020), typically indicative of oversold conditions. The bands’ persistent width suggests ongoing volatility, but a contraction would signal diminishing momentum. A close above the 20-day midline ($1,110) is needed to signal meaningful recovery potential.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume trends validate bearish momentum: High-volume declines (e.g., May 30: 371,763 shares, −7.03%) outpaced rallies during the downtrend. However, the June 25 selloff occurred on below-average volume, diverging from the preceding down day (June 23: 179,236 shares, −3.16%), suggesting selling pressure may be waning. Sustained recovery would require volume expansion on up days to confirm accumulation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (31) approaches oversold territory but has not breached the 30 threshold. This reading aligns with the broader downtrend but shows mild improvement from June 24 (RSI: 28), reflecting slight momentum stabilization. While oversold RSI readings sometimes precede bounces, TPL’s RSI has oscillated near 30 for weeks without sparking a reversal, underscoring its role as a warning—not predictive—indicator.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the May 21 peak ($1,416.06) and June 24 trough ($1,021.37), key retracement levels include 23.6% ($1,320), 38.2% ($1,265), and 61.8% ($1,175). Current price action below all retracement levels confirms the downtrend’s strength. A rebound toward $1,175 (61.8%) would face technical resistance, while failure to reclaim $1,265 (38.2%) may reinvigorate bearish sentiment.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence appears in oversold signals: KDJ (%K < 20), RSI near 30, and price at Bollinger’s lower band collectively suggest downward exhaustion. However, this lacks confirmation from volume or candlestick reversal patterns. A key divergence exists in momentum: The higher June 25 low ($1,030.01 vs. June 24’s $1,021.37) coincides with improving RSI/MACD trajectories, hinting at potential stabilization. Bearish alignment of moving averages, Fibonacci resistance, and weak volume-price dynamics nevertheless dominate the broader outlook. A decisive break below $1,020 would likely extend the downtrend, while reclaiming $1,070 could catalyze a short-term rebound toward $1,110. Given multiple oversold indicators, traders should monitor for reversal confirmation but respect the prevailing bearish structure.