Texas Instruments Plunges 3.07%—What’s Fueling This Sudden Selloff?

Summary
• TXN trades at $193.675, down 3.07% from its $199.81 open
• Intraday range spans $191.38 to $200.08, signaling sharp volatility
• Options turnover surges to 3.29 million shares, with 2025-09-12 contracts dominating
• Stock nears 52-week low of $139.95 amid technical breakdown and sector-wide caution

Today’s selloff in Texas Instruments has sent shockwaves through the semiconductor sector, with the stock trading near critical support levels. The sharp decline, absent company-specific news, has triggered a surge in options activity and raised questions about broader market sentiment. As TXN tests key technical thresholds, traders are scrambling to decipher whether this is a bearish reversal or a temporary correction.

Technical Weakness and Options Volatility Drive Sharp Decline
The 3.07% drop in TXN reflects a breakdown below critical support levels and a shift in momentum. The stock has pierced the 30-day moving average of $193.70 and is now trading near the 200-day average of $188.65, which could act as a psychological floor. MACD (2.07) remains above the signal line (1.08), but the histogram’s contraction suggests waning bullish momentum. Meanwhile, RSI at 67.13 indicates overbought conditions, hinting at profit-taking after a long-term bullish trend. The lack of company news points to broader market forces, including sector rotation or macroeconomic concerns.

Semiconductor Sector Stumbles as Intel Trails Behind
The semiconductor sector has seen mixed performance, with Intel (INTC) down 1.32% despite TXN’s sharper decline. While TXN’s drop reflects technical exhaustion, INTC’s muted move suggests sector-wide caution rather than a TXN-specific event. The divergence highlights varying investor sentiment toward analog vs. discrete semiconductor plays. However, the sector’s overall underperformance—driven by macroeconomic headwinds—means TXN’s selloff is part of a broader trend rather than an isolated incident.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Positioning
• 200-day average: $188.65 (near)
• RSI: 67.13 (overbought)
• MACD: 2.07 (bullish but weakening)
• Bollinger Bands: $191.38–$211.62 (current price near lower band)

Key levels to watch include the 200-day support at $188.65 and the 30-day support at $185.63. Short-term traders should monitor the $190–$192.5 range for potential reversals, while longer-term bulls may eye the $188.65 level as a critical test. The options chain reveals aggressive positioning, with leveraged puts and calls attracting liquidity. Two standout contracts for bearish scenarios are:

• TXN20250912P192.5 (Put, $192.5 strike, 2025-09-12): IV 27.25%, leverage 67.49%, delta -0.432, theta -0.026, gamma 0.044972, turnover 54,271
- IV (27.25%): Moderate volatility, aligning with market uncertainty
- Leverage (67.49%): High potential return for a 5% downside
- Delta (-0.432): Sensitive to price drops
- Gamma (0.044972): High sensitivity to price swings
- Turnover (54,271): Strong liquidity for entry/exit
- Payoff: $7.50 per share if TXN drops to $185
- Why it stands out: High leverage and gamma make it ideal for a 5% downside scenario, with moderate delta ensuring directional exposure.

• TXN20250912C195 (Call, $195 strike, 2025-09-12): IV 27.43%, leverage 65.88%, delta 0.453, theta -0.301, gamma 0.045036, turnover 44,933
- IV (27.43%): Balanced volatility for short-term bets
- Leverage (65.88%): Strong upside potential if TXN rebounds
- Delta (0.453): Moderately sensitive to price increases
- Gamma (0.045036): High sensitivity to price swings
- Turnover (44,933): Sufficient liquidity for entry/exit
- Payoff: $1.50 per share if TXN rebounds to $200
- Why it stands out: Asymmetric upside if the stock rebounds above $195, with high gamma ensuring responsiveness to price swings.

If $188.65 breaks, TXN20250912P192.5 offers short-side potential. Aggressive bulls may consider TXN20250912C195 into a bounce above $195.

Backtest Texas Instruments Stock Performance

Position for Breakdown or Bounce—What’s Next for TXN?
The selloff in TXN has created a pivotal juncture for traders. With the stock near its 200-day average and options positioning skewed bearish, the immediate focus is on whether $188.65 holds. A breakdown would validate the bearish case, while a rebound above $195 could reignite the long-term bullish trend. Investors should monitor Intel’s performance (-1.32%) as a sector barometer. For now, the data favors a cautious stance: short-term traders may target TXN20250912P192.5 for downside exposure, while longer-term bulls should watch for a retest of the $190–$192.5 range. The key takeaway: volatility is here to stay, and positioning must adapt to the shifting currents.