Texas Instruments cae un 3.27%: ¿Qué está detrás de esta caída repentina?

Summary
• Texas Instruments (TXN) trades at $185.82, down 3.27% intraday
• Intraday range: $185.68 (low) to $190.72 (high)
• CEO Haviv Ilan’s upcoming investor conference speeches and $60B U.S. manufacturing investment dominate headlines

Today’s sharp decline in Texas Instruments has sent shockwaves through the semiconductor sector. With the stock trading below its 52-week high of $221.69 and facing a critical support level at $170.51, investors are scrambling to decipher the catalyst. The move coincides with a flurry of executive appearances at major investor conferences and a landmark $60 billion domestic manufacturing initiative, raising questions about short-term market sentiment versus long-term strategic positioning.

Executive Visibility and Capital Allocation Spark Short-Term Volatility
The intraday selloff in TXN appears tied to a combination of executive visibility and capital allocation decisions. With CEO Haviv Ilan and CFO Rafael Lizardi scheduled to speak at multiple investor conferences in early 2026, market participants are recalibrating expectations around near-term guidance. Simultaneously, the company’s $60 billion U.S. manufacturing investment—while a strategic win for domestic semiconductor sovereignty—has introduced execution risk concerns. Analysts are parsing whether this capital-intensive expansion could strain short-term liquidity, particularly as the stock trades at a 33.17 P/E ratio, below its 52-week average but above sector peers. The recent Q4 2024 earnings report, which showed 20.37% projected EPS growth, contrasts with the immediate sell-off, suggesting a disconnect between long-term fundamentals and near-term positioning.

Semiconductor Sector Volatility: TXN vs. INTC
The semiconductor sector remains in flux as Intel (INTC) surges 6.79% on the same day, driven by its 18A node production ramp. While TXN’s decline reflects execution risk concerns around its $60B U.S. manufacturing initiative, INTC’s gains highlight the market’s appetite for leading-edge logic node progress. This divergence underscores the sector’s bifurcation: foundational analog chipmakers like TXN face capital allocation scrutiny, while logic-focused players benefit from AI infrastructure demand. The S&P 500’s 0.02% decline further isolates TXN’s move, suggesting sector-specific rather than broad market drivers.

Options Playbook: Hedging and Leverage in a Volatile TXN Environment
• 200-day MA: 181.48 (below current price)
• RSI: 71.71 (overbought)
• MACD: 2.52 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 170.51 (lower band) to 186.19 (upper band)

Technical indicators suggest a short-term overbought condition with long-term support at $170.51. The 200-day MA at $181.48 offers a potential near-term floor, while the RSI’s 71.71 reading signals a possible pullback. For options traders, two contracts stand out:

• TXN20260116P180 (Put Option):
- Strike: $180 | Expiration: 2026-01-16
- IV: 31.10% (moderate volatility)
- Leverage: 115.95% (high reward potential)
- Delta: -0.267 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.083 (moderate time decay)
- Turnover: $169,495 (high liquidity)
- Gamma: 0.034 (responsive to price swings)
- Payoff at 5% downside: $5.82 (max profit if price drops to $176.52)
- Why it works: High leverage and gamma make this put ideal for a 5% downside scenario, with sufficient liquidity for entry/exit.

• TXN20260116C185 (Call Option):
- Strike: $185 | Expiration: 2026-01-16
- IV: 39.61% (attractive volatility)
- Leverage: 36.09% (balanced risk/reward)
- Delta: 0.532 (moderate directional bias)
- Theta: -0.354 (aggressive time decay)
- Turnover: $48,390 (solid liquidity)
- Gamma: 0.032 (responsive to price swings)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $10.31 (max profit if price rises to $195.11)
- Why it works: This call offers a balanced play on a potential rebound above $185, with favorable IV and liquidity.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider TXN20260116C185 into a bounce above $185, while bears should monitor the TXN20260116P180 for a 5% downside breakout.

Backtest Texas Instruments Stock Performance
The backtest of Texas Instruments (TXN) after a -3% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present shows mixed short-term performance but a positive long-term outlook. The 3-Day win rate is 52.05%, the 10-Day win rate is 49.18%, and the 30-Day win rate is 50.61%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 2.20%, suggesting that while TXN has a good chance of recovering from a -3% plunge, the overall returns may be modest.

TXN at Crossroads: Strategic Clarity or Short-Term Pain?
Texas Instruments’ 3.27% decline reflects a tug-of-war between long-term strategic momentum and near-term execution risks. While the $60B U.S. manufacturing initiative cements its role in the domestic semiconductor renaissance, investors must weigh short-term capital allocation concerns against a 20.37% projected EPS growth rate. The 200-day MA at $181.48 and Bollinger Band support at $170.51 offer critical reference points. Meanwhile, sector leader Intel’s 6.79% surge highlights the sector’s bifurcation. For now, watch the $185.82 level—break below $180 triggers a deeper correction, while a rebound above $190.72 (intraday high) could reignite bullish momentum. Act now: Position in TXN20260116P180 for downside protection or TXN20260116C185 for a potential rebound.