Tether/Zloty Market Overview: 24-Hour USDTPLN Technical Analysis

• Price consolidates near 3.626, with limited range expansion in the last 24 hours.
• Volume shows consistent accumulation during overnight hours, confirming trend strength.
• RSI remains neutral near 50, while MACD indicates no strong bullish or bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands contract in early ET hours, hinting at low volatility and potential breakout.
• Fibonacci retracement levels align with recent consolidation, suggesting possible reversal cues.

Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) opened at 3.624 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 3.627 and a low of 3.619 before closing at 3.627 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 139,998.0, with notional turnover amounting to 489,836.54 PLN.

The candlestick pattern over the last 24 hours shows a bullish consolidation phase with a narrow trading range between 3.619 and 3.628. Price appears to be forming a potential ascending triangle pattern, with support at 3.624 and resistance forming at 3.627–3.628. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared in the early morning hours, suggesting a potential reversal from prior bearish pressure. A doji formed near 3.625 around 05:45 ET, indicating indecision at that level.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are tightly clustered between 3.625 and 3.627, with price frequently hovering above the 20SMA, showing short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50SMA is at 3.623, 100SMA at 3.622, and 200SMA at 3.620, all closely aligned, indicating no strong directional bias yet.

MACD lines show a flat to slightly bullish divergence, with the histogram contracting in recent hours, suggesting waning momentum. RSI remains within neutral territory, oscillating between 48 and 54, with no overbought or oversold conditions emerging. Bollinger Bands have been contracting during the overnight and early morning sessions, suggesting a period of consolidation may precede a breakout. Price remains well within the upper and lower bands, suggesting no extreme volatility yet.

Volume and turnover data show a clear uptrend during the overnight hours, with volume spiking as high as 14,172.0 in the early morning (06:45 ET) as price held steady near 3.626. The increase in turnover aligns with the volume spikes, indicating strong accumulation at key price levels. A divergence appears between the price and turnover during the 04:45–05:45 ET window, where turnover declined while price moved sideways. This may suggest temporary exhaustion before a resumption of the bullish trend.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the recent 15-minute swing from 3.624 to 3.628 indicate key levels at 3.626 (61.8%) and 3.625 (38.2%), both of which have been tested and held. On the daily chart, if the current move is part of a larger upward trend, Fibonacci levels at 3.628 (61.8%) and 3.627 (38.2%) could offer early confirmation of a breakout or continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy described involves a long entry triggered by a bullish engulfing pattern forming above a 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a volume spike and a close above the engulfing candle’s high. A stop-loss is placed below the engulfing candle’s low, and a target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the preceding bearish swing. The strategy assumes a low-volatility environment (as seen in the Bollinger Band contraction) to minimize false signals. If applied to the recent 02:30–03:45 ET consolidation phase, the engulfing candle formed around 05:45 ET would serve as a potential entry point with a strong R:R profile of 1:1.5.