Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) Market Overview

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• Price drifted lower with high volatility, opening at 42.03 and closing near 42.04 after a low of 41.60.
• Momentum indicators signal mixed signals, with RSI showing oversold conditions and MACD hinting at bearish divergence.
• Volume increased in the late hours, suggesting growing participation but without strong directional bias.
• Key support tested around 41.73, with a potential resistance forming near 42.05 based on recent highs.

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 42.03 on October 5, 2025 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 42.08 and a low of 41.60 before closing at 42.04 on October 6, 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 56,917.0 Hryvnia, with notional turnover of $1,377.50 based on the 24-hour dataset.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour 15-minute chart shows a volatile price action with a significant pullback occurring between 21:45 ET and 09:45 ET the next day, where the pair dropped from 42.02 to 41.64. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 09:45 ET as the price rejected the lower range and closed higher. A doji appears near 00:00 ET, indicating indecision and potential reversal. Key support levels appear to be around 41.73 (tested multiple times) and 41.59 (breakout level), while resistance levels are forming around 42.05 and 42.08.

Moving Averages

Using a 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, we observe that the price has spent much of the day below both averages, indicating a bearish bias. The 50-period line is currently around 41.98, and the 20-period is slightly above it at 42.00. A potential crossover scenario may occur if the price continues to test the 42.05 level, offering a possible short-term reversal signal.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has spent the majority of the day in the 30–60 range, but it recently entered oversold territory, dipping as low as 32 near 09:30 ET. The MACD histogram shows a bearish divergence during the price’s downward leg between 00:00 and 08:00 ET, indicating weakening bearish momentum. However, a positive MACD crossover occurred just before 09:30 ET, suggesting a potential short-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Band width expanded significantly during the drop from 42.02 to 41.64, reflecting heightened volatility. Price action has spent a considerable portion of the day below the lower band, especially in the early morning hours. As of the last 15-minute bar, the price is within the band but still close to the lower boundary, suggesting a possible bounce or continuation depending on volume and order flow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively low in the early hours, with a significant spike occurring after 00:00 ET, peaking around 06:30 ET when the pair was trading near 41.86. This increase in volume coincided with a price rebound, suggesting strong accumulation. However, later in the day, volume dropped again after the 09:30 ET rebound. A price-volume divergence is visible in the early morning, with a bearish divergence between the lower price and higher volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool to the key swing from 42.08 (high) to 41.64 (low), the 38.2% level sits at 41.82 and the 61.8% at 41.95, both of which were tested and rejected. The 61.8% level could serve as a potential pivot point for a short-term reversal. A daily Fibonacci retracement from a previous high would align with the 42.08 level, reinforcing the resistance zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy proposes using the 50-period and 20-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart to identify potential short-term entries. A buy signal is generated when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA and the RSI is in oversold territory (< 30), while a sell signal occurs when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA and the RSI is overbought (> 70). The strategy also includes a trailing stop at the 50-period MA. Given the recent divergence in MACD and RSI, as well as the recent 20/50 MA crossover, the strategy may have provided a valid entry around 09:30 ET as the price rebounded from the 41.64 low. If applied consistently, this could have captured a portion of the 0.40 Hryvnia bounce. However, traders should remain cautious due to the strong support zone and potential consolidation ahead.