Tether/Dai Market Overview: Volatility and Support in 24-Hour Candlestick Data

Summary
• Price fluctuated narrowly within a 0.9993–1.0004 range, with a modest recovery post-overnight dip.
• Volume spiked during the 01:30–02:15 ET window, coinciding with the highest high and a temporary breakout.
• RSI remained neutral and MACD showed no clear momentum divergence, suggesting a continuation of range-bound trading.

Tether/Dai (USDTDAI) opened at 0.9998 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET, and closed at 0.9997 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET, after reaching a high of 1.0002 and a low of 0.9990. The 24-hour total volume was approximately 9,849,494.1 units, while total turnover (notional value) amounted to roughly $9,839,649.90 based on the “amount” field.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a classic consolidation pattern between 0.9995–1.0002, with a brief but sharp 0.0007 upward breakout at 01:30 ET following a bullish engulfing pattern. A strong rejection at the upper boundary occurred during 02:15–02:45 ET, forming a bearish reversal structure. Key support was observed at 0.9995, which acted as a floor for most of the session, with a minor breakdown to 0.9993 during the 08:00–08:15 ET period.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained tightly clustered around 0.9997–0.9998, indicating a lack of directional bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA at 0.9996 and the 200-period SMA at 0.9996 showed price hovering at equilibrium, with no clear trend emerging from the data.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines oscillated around the zero axis, with no sustained divergence or histogram expansion, reflecting neutral momentum. RSI readings stayed within the 50–55 range for the majority of the session, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. A temporary dip to 49.3 during the overnight hours did not trigger a sustained rebound, suggesting the market remained in equilibrium.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the 01:30–02:15 ET spike, with prices reaching the upper Bollinger band at 1.0002 before retreating. The 20-period band width increased from ~0.0001 to ~0.0007 during this period. Price subsequently retracted and closed near the middle band, with no signs of a breakout confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 2.37 million units at 01:30 ET, a 10x increase compared to earlier periods, coinciding with the breakout to 1.0002. This was followed by a sharp decline in volume as prices retracted, indicating weak follow-through. Notional turnover mirrored this trend, with the highest turnover of ~$2.37 million during the same period.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the overnight low (0.9990) to the high (1.0002), the 61.8% retracement level (~0.9997) aligned closely with the 20-period MA and acted as a magnet for price in the final hours. The 38.2% retracement at ~0.9999 showed weaker influence but was tested during the midday consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed support/resistance dynamics, a potential backtest strategy would involve entering long positions upon a confirmed breakout above 1.0004 or short positions below 0.9995. However, preliminary results using a truncated price history (2025-09-04 to 2025-11-06) showed limited statistical significance in returns, likely due to the small sample size. For instance, the average return 30 days post-event was only +0.20%, with win rates peaking at 81%. These results suggest that, while the price tends to remain within a narrow band, trading signals may need to be refined or combined with volume and pattern filters to improve robustness.