Tether/Argentine Peso Market Overview

• USDTARS rose to 1579.9 in 24 hours, closing near its high on strong volume and momentum.
• RSI near overbought levels suggests potential pullback, with 1574.1–1579.1 forming a tight consolidation range.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours, with Bollinger Bands widening post 23:00 ET.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged near 1571.4, reinforcing near-term upward bias.
• Notional turnover increased 60% in the final 6 hours, indicating growing institutional interest.

Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) opened at 1554.3 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 1573.4 by 12:00 ET, reaching an intraday high of 1579.9. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 1,740,396 contracts and a notional turnover of $2,733,929,916, with the strongest buying pressure observed after midnight on 2025-10-25.

The price action formed a bullish consolidation pattern between 1574.1 and 1579.1, with the close near the upper end suggesting a possible breakout attempt. A key support level appears to be forming around 1571.4–1573.8, where a bullish engulfing candle emerged after a temporary selloff. Resistance levels are likely to be tested at 1579.0 and the intraday high of 1579.9 in the next 24 hours.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging upward, supporting the bullish bias. The RSI reached 76.8 near the session’s high, indicating overbought conditions, while the MACD line crossed above the signal line in the morning, reinforcing a momentum shift higher. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly from 23:00 ET onward, with the price hovering near the upper band, signaling a period of increased volatility.

The Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing low at 1551.8 to the swing high at 1579.9 show the 61.8% level at 1571.5 and the 38.2% at 1575.2, which align with the consolidation range. Price appears to be testing these levels for a potential breakout. Volume and notional turnover saw a sharp increase from 01:00 to 06:00 ET, with volume peaking at 18,629 contracts during this period, confirming the strength in the upward move. A divergence between volume and price movement is not observed, suggesting a coherent and coordinated buying effort.

Backtest Hypothesis

To refine potential entry and exit signals, a backtest strategy is being considered based on the Bearish Harami pattern. The pattern is often used to identify potential reversal points in an uptrend, particularly when it appears near overbought RSI levels or at key resistance areas. Given the recent strong momentum in USDTARS, identifying such patterns could help validate or anticipate a pullback. However, for the backtest to be accurate, a recognized and accessible ticker symbol and exchange are required. Once this information is confirmed, the Bearish Harami pattern will be mapped against the price data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-25. The 3-day short-hold strategy will then be tested for profitability, risk-adjusted returns, and drawdowns, providing a clearer perspective on the market’s behavior around these signals.