Tether/Argentine Peso Market Overview

• Tether/Argentine Peso opened at 1565.9 and closed 1562.7 after a sharp decline to 1430.4
• Daily low at 1430.4, with price bouncing off key support levels
• Volatility spiked with a large 15-minute range of 1566.0–1430.0
• Notional turnover surged to $3.5M as price dropped 6.4%
• A key engulfing bearish candle formed after 2025-10-26 22:15 ET

Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) opened at 1565.9 on October 26 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1562.7 the following day. The price swung between a high of 1566.0 and a low of 1430.4, with a total traded volume of 3.2M ARS and a notional turnover of $3.5M over 24 hours.

Price action revealed a bearish reversal pattern following a sharp sell-off from 1560.0 to 1430.4, with the 1430.0–1440.0 zone acting as immediate support. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early hours of October 27, confirming a shift in momentum. A 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 50-period EMA, signaling bearish pressure.

The 50-day moving average currently sits at 1550.0, while the 200-day line rests near 1570.0. Price has been trading below both, with no immediate signs of a retest. MACD turned negative with a bearish crossover, and RSI dropped into oversold territory at 27.6, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce, though it may remain capped by the 1460.0–1470.0 range.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the sell-off, indicating heightened volatility. Price remains below the 20-period Bollinger Band lower band at 1440.0, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Fibonacci retracement levels suggest a potential rebound toward 1450.0 (38.2%) and 1465.0 (50%), though 1480.0 (61.8%) appears to be a formidable resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

To further assess potential trade setups, a backtest using RSI-14 could be valuable, particularly for identifying oversold levels as a trigger for a short-term bounce. For this strategy, we would monitor RSI dropping below 30 as a potential buy signal, followed by a 3-day holding period. Given the current RSI level at 27.6, such a signal is already in place.

However, due to missing RSI-14 data for USDTARS, the backtest cannot be fully executed. To proceed, please confirm whether the RSI data is available under a different ticker (e.g., “USDT/ARS”) or if we should use USDARS as a proxy for liquidity and volatility. Once confirmed, we can run the strategy from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-27 and present performance metrics including win rate, average gain, and maximum drawdown.

Looking ahead, USDTARS may test the 1430.0–1440.0 support cluster again if volatility remains high. A reversal above 1450.0 could indicate renewed buying interest, but bearish momentum may persist unless 1465.0 is convincingly breached. Investors should closely watch for volume divergences and RSI divergence as early warning signs of trend exhaustion.